ScoreProb
Eredivisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven

Cambuur Home · Elo 1,532
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
PSV Eindhoven Away · Elo 1,679
Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: PSV Eindhoven win
Cambuur win
23.7%
Draw
21.4%
PSV Eindhoven winPick
54.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.8%
No37.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.8%
Under 2.533.2%

How much we know

Cambuur history67 matches
PSV Eindhoven history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why PSV Eindhoven are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • PSV Eindhoven are rated 147 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,679 against 1,532. On rating alone PSV Eindhoven would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • PSV Eindhoven score more

    1.81 goals a game over 67 matches for Cambuur, against 2.69 over 78 for PSV Eindhoven.

  • Defences are close

    Cambuur concede 1.48 a game, PSV Eindhoven 1.55.

  • PSV Eindhoven games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Cambuur matches, against 87% for PSV Eindhoven. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cambuur
PSV Eindhoven
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1532.4
ELO
1679.1
67
ELO · Matches
78
1532.4
Current Team ELO
1679.1
1679.1
Current Opponent ELO
1532.4
-146.7
Current ELO Difference
146.7
0.30
Expected score
0.70
67
History Matches
78
0.03
Residual Mean
0.13
52.16
Overperformance
60.00
-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.40
3.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.20
1.30
Goals for per game
3.20
2.50
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.99
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
78
1.79
PPG
2.13
53.7%
Win rate
66.7%
17.9%
Draw rate
12.8%
28.4%
Loss rate
20.5%
79.1%
Over 1.5 rate
98.7%
59.7%
Over 2.5 rate
87.2%
43.3%
Over 3.5 rate
60.3%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
33
2.08
PPG
2.15
63.9%
Win rate
66.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
15.2%
19.4%
Loss rate
18.2%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
97.0%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
81.8%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
54.5%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
36
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
2.69
89.6%
Scoring rate
94.9%
65.7%
BTTS rate
79.5%
1.89
Goals for per game
2.42
88.9%
Scoring rate
97.0%
61.1%
BTTS rate
78.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
78
1.81
Goals Mean
2.69
1.25
Goals Std
1.53
89.6%
Scored 1+ rate
94.9%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
79.5%
23.9%
Scored 3+ rate
47.4%
1.89
Venue Goals Mean
2.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.48
Goals against per game
1.55
74.6%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.36
69.4%
Conceding rate
81.8%
4.00
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
78
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.31
Conceded Std
1.16
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.9%
25.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.2%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
10.4%
Failed-to-score rate
5.1%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
3.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
10.4%
Failed-to-score rate
5.1%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
3.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
78
0.91
Result entropy
0.78
1.76
Goal Difference Std
2.10
9.05
Stability score
21.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
78
22
Lead Matches
37
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
97.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.97
22
Trailing Matches
19
27.3%
Non-loss rate
47.4%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
26.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
1.35
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
1.01
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.35
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.29
40
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
19
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
7
Competition Season Count
11
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.99
Portability PPG Std
0.51
2.36
Portability PPG Range
1.47
33.52
Portability Score
49.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-146.7
PPG-0.34
GF-0.89
GA-0.07
PPG-2.33
PPG-0.07
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate5.3%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.89
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.29
Scored 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Goals Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.35
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score-12.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.95
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate2.7%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.67
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.48
Portability PPG Range0.89
Portability Score-15.89
Rest days-0.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.71
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.84
Current Team ELO-146.7
Current Opponent ELO146.7
Current ELO Difference-293.4
Expected score-0.40
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cambuur

W
Cambuur4–0GO Ahead Eagles31 Oct · home
Pick: GO Ahead Eagles 48% · missed
W
Kloetinge0–2Cambuur27 Oct · away
Pick: Cambuur 40% · hit
W
Willem II1–6Cambuur24 Oct · away
Pick: Willem II 51% · missed
D
Cambuur2–2AZ Alkmaar18 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 57% · missed
L
Cambuur1–4Twente30 Aug · home
Pick: Twente 50% · hit

PSV Eindhoven

W
PSV Eindhoven7–0Willem II31 Oct · home
Pick: PSV Eindhoven 62% · hit
D
PSV Eindhoven1–1Feyenoord25 Oct · home
Pick: PSV Eindhoven 48% · missed
W
FC Porto0–1PSV Eindhoven20 Oct · away
Pick: FC Porto 50% · missed
L
ADO Den Haag2–1PSV Eindhoven17 Oct · away
Pick: PSV Eindhoven 51% · missed
L
RB Leipzig1–0PSV Eindhoven13 Oct · away
Pick: PSV Eindhoven 49% · missed

About this match

Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven meet in Eredivisie on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:45 UTC. The match is played at Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Cambuur win 23.7%, draw 21.4%, PSV Eindhoven win 54.9%. The pick is PSV Eindhoven win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.8%. Both teams to score: 62.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.