ScoreProb
Primera División Peru Round 16 2026

ADT vs Sporting Cristal

ADT Home · Elo 1,476
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sporting Cristal Away · Elo 1,539
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: ADT win
ADT winPick
40.2%
Draw
24.0%
Sporting Cristal win
35.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.7%
Under 2.542.3%

How much we know

ADT history60 matches
Sporting Cristal history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why ADT are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sporting Cristal are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,476. On rating alone Sporting Cristal would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Sporting Cristal score more

    1.22 goals a game over 60 matches for ADT, against 1.54 over 82 for Sporting Cristal.

  • Defences are close

    ADT concede 1.37 a game, Sporting Cristal 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of ADT matches, against 56% for Sporting Cristal. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ADT
Sporting Cristal
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1475.9
ELO
1539.2
60
ELO · Matches
82
1475.9
Current Team ELO
1539.2
1539.2
Current Opponent ELO
1475.9
-63.30
Current ELO Difference
63.30
0.41
Expected score
0.59
60
History Matches
82
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
48.92
Overperformance
52.25
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
82
1.30
PPG
1.51
33.3%
Win rate
42.7%
30.0%
Draw rate
23.2%
36.7%
Loss rate
34.1%
68.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
56.1%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.1%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
39
1.69
PPG
0.90
46.9%
Win rate
20.5%
28.1%
Draw rate
28.2%
25.0%
Loss rate
51.3%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
41.0%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
32
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
1.54
73.3%
Scoring rate
79.3%
51.7%
BTTS rate
56.1%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.23
84.4%
Scoring rate
74.4%
53.1%
BTTS rate
64.1%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.65
76.2%
Scoring rate
95.7%
52.4%
BTTS rate
78.3%
60
History Matches
82
1.22
Goals Mean
1.54
1.05
Goals Std
1.18
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
79.3%
31.7%
Scored 2+ rate
48.8%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.1%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.30
71.7%
Conceding rate
70.7%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.79
65.6%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.61
71.4%
Conceding rate
82.6%
60
History Matches
82
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.20
Conceded Std
1.20
45.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.8%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.9%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
4.3%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
82
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.78
0.30
Stability score
2.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
82
16
Lead Matches
25
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.85
20
Trailing Matches
23
25.0%
Non-loss rate
30.4%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
7
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.29
28
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
31
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
23
1.05
PPG
1.26
23.8%
Win rate
34.8%
33.3%
Draw rate
21.7%
42.9%
Loss rate
43.5%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
91.3%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
69.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
43.5%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
21
Current Competition Matches
23
1.05
Current Competition PPG
1.26
-0.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.04
5
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.47
0.70
Portability PPG Range
1.33
63.46
Portability Score
51.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-63.30
PPG-0.21
GF-0.32
GA0.06
PPG-0.21
PPG0.79
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-22
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-22
Goals Mean-0.32
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-22
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate7.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches-22
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score-2.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches-22
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate1.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-22
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.23
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.63
Portability Score12.00
Rest days-1.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Current Team ELO-63.30
Current Opponent ELO63.30
Current ELO Difference-126.6
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-22
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ADT

D
Comerciantes Unidos2–2ADT3 Nov · away
Pick: Comerciantes Unidos 43% · missed
D
Atletico Grau1–1ADT23 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Grau 45% · missed
L
Club Deportivo Los Chankas2–1ADT16 Oct · away
Pick: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 45% · hit
L
ADT1–3Sport Huancayo30 Aug · home
Pick: ADT 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sporting Cristal

W
Sporting Cristal5–0FC Cajamarca2 Nov · home
Pick: Sporting Cristal 60% · hit
L
Cusco3–1Sporting Cristal24 Oct · away
Pick: Cusco 38% · hit
L
Sport Boys1–0Sporting Cristal30 Aug · away
Pick: Sport Boys 41% · hit
W
Sporting Cristal4–1Sport Huancayo26 Aug · home
Pick: Sporting Cristal 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

ADT and Sporting Cristal meet in Primera División on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: ADT win 40.2%, draw 24.0%, Sporting Cristal win 35.9%. The pick is ADT win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.7%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.