AEK Athens U19 vs Real Madrid U19
AEK Athens U19
Full time
1–4
Half time 1–1
Wed 4 Nov · 10:00 UTC
Real Madrid U19
What we said before kickoff Result: Real Madrid U19 win
AEK Athens U19 winPick
36.9%
Draw
26.5%
Real Madrid U19 win Result
36.6%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickAEK Athens U19 win · 36.9%
What happenedReal Madrid U19 win · we gave it 36.6%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 51.7%
What happenedOver · 5 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 53.5%
What happenedYes · 1–4
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Real Madrid U19 win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
37%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.7
on average A pick at 37% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
Yellow cardA. Argyriou
11' 25'
GoalD. Villalba
GoalA. Amanatidis · assist A. Argyriou
29' 32'
Yellow cardD. Yanez
Yellow cardS. Psyropoulos
34' 44'
Yellow cardG. Gonzalez
Yellow cardA. Amanatidis
45' 46'
SubstitutionG. Gonzalez off · L. Lemaitre on
SubstitutionA. Rinnis off · P. Marinos on
46' 53'
GoalE. Alves
58'
GoalD. Yanez · assist A. Ciria
61'
SubstitutionC. Diez off · A. Rivera on
SubstitutionA. Amanatidis off · D. Sioutas on
61' SubstitutionA. Argyriou off · P. Pontikis on
61' SubstitutionP. Tampakoglou off · A. Georgiou on
61' Yellow cardG. Gkolfinos
70' 73'
SubstitutionA. Ciria off · A. Perez on
73'
SubstitutionD. Villalba off · B. Bugarin on
75'
Yellow cardC. Fofana
79'
GoalB. Bugarin · assist A. Perez
80'
SubstitutionC. Fofana off · A. Corcoba on
SubstitutionP. Frantzeskakis off · S. Stergiaropoulos on
82' Lineups
Published about an hour before kickoff
Lineups are not out yet. They usually appear about an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. The prediction does not use lineups.
Match stats
AEK Athens U19 left, Real Madrid U19 right
Match statistics are not provided for this competition by our data source.
Both teams to score
Yes53.5%
No46.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.7%
Under 2.548.3%
How much we know
AEK Athens U19 history0 matches
Real Madrid U19 history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full time: 1–4Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why AEK Athens U19 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Real Madrid U19 are rated 58 Elo points higher
Elo 1,558 against 1,500. On rating alone Real Madrid U19 would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AEK Athens U19
Real Madrid U19
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1558.1
0
ELO · Matches
13
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1558.1
1558.1
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-58.06
Current ELO Difference
58.06
0.42
Expected score
0.58
0
History Matches
13
—
Residual Mean
0.26
—
Overperformance
60.18
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.29
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
2.20
—
Goals for per game
2.00
—
Goals against per game
1.00
—
Win rate
60.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
2.30
—
Goals for per game
2.10
—
Goals against per game
1.00
—
Win rate
70.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
13
—
PPG
2.23
—
Win rate
69.2%
—
Draw rate
15.4%
—
Loss rate
15.4%
—
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
—
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
—
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
4
—
PPG
2.50
—
Win rate
75.0%
—
Draw rate
25.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
0
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
2.00
—
Scoring rate
84.6%
—
BTTS rate
46.2%
—
Goals for per game
2.75
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
50.0%
0
History Matches
13
—
Goals Mean
2.00
—
Goals Std
1.52
—
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
—
Scored 2+ rate
53.8%
—
Scored 3+ rate
30.8%
—
Venue Goals Mean
2.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.08
—
Conceding rate
61.5%
—
Goals against per game
0.50
—
Conceding rate
50.0%
0
History Matches
13
—
Conceded Mean
1.08
—
Conceded Std
1.14
—
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
0.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
—
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
—
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
13
—
Result entropy
0.76
—
Goal Difference Std
2.06
—
Stability score
24.40
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
13
0
Lead Matches
6
—
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.89
0
Trailing Matches
5
—
Non-loss rate
60.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
40.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
13
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.23
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
197.7
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
0
Long Rest History Matches
11
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.27
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-58.06
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
History Matches-4
History Matches-13
History Matches-13
History Matches-13
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-6
Trailing Matches-5
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches-11
Current Team ELO-58.06
Current Opponent ELO58.06
Current ELO Difference-116.1
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
AEK Athens U19
D
Manchester City U191–1AEK Athens U1920 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester City U19 60% · missed W
Shakhtar Donetsk U191–2AEK Athens U1914 Oct · away
Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 72% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Real Madrid U19
W
Real Madrid U195–2RB Leipzig U1921 Oct · home
Pick: RB Leipzig U19 53% · missed W
Roma U190–1Real Madrid U1914 Oct · away
Pick: Roma U19 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
AEK Athens U19 and Real Madrid U19 finished 1–4 in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: AEK Athens U19 win 36.9%, draw 26.5%, Real Madrid U19 win 36.6%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.