ScoreProb
UEFA Youth League World Semi-finals 2026

Pafos U19 vs Benfica U19

Pafos U19 Home · Elo 1,473
LIVE · 10'
0–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
Benfica U19 Away · Elo 1,649
Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Benfica U19 win
Pafos U19 win
18.4%
Draw
16.7%
Benfica U19 winPick
64.9%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

Nothing has happened yet. Goals, cards and substitutions appear here as they happen.

Lineups

Published about an hour before kickoff

Lineups are not out yet. They usually appear about an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. The prediction does not use lineups.

Live stats

Pafos U19 left, Benfica U19 right

Match statistics are not provided for this competition by our data source.

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Benfica U19 win · 64.9%
Level: 0–0
Both teams to scorePick: Yes · 57.7%
Needs both teams to score
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 70.7%
Needs 3 more goals
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes57.7%
No42.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.7%
Under 2.529.3%

How much we know

Pafos U19 history6 matches
Benfica U19 history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Benfica U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Benfica U19 are rated 176 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,649 against 1,473. On rating alone Benfica U19 would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Benfica U19 score far more

    0.83 goals a game over 6 matches for Pafos U19, against 2.57 over 58 for Benfica U19.

  • Benfica U19 concede fewer

    Pafos U19 concede 2.50 a game, Benfica U19 1.19.

  • Pafos U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    83% of Pafos U19 matches, against 72% for Benfica U19. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pafos U19
Benfica U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.6
ELO
1649.1
6
ELO · Matches
58
1472.6
Current Team ELO
1649.1
1649.1
Current Opponent ELO
1472.6
-176.5
Current ELO Difference
176.5
0.27
Expected score
0.73
6
History Matches
58
-0.23
Residual Mean
0.13
44.73
Overperformance
59.54
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
6
Matches
10
0.67
PPG
1.50
0.83
Goals for per game
2.50
2.50
Goals against per game
1.80
16.7%
Win rate
40.0%
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.21
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.75
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.96
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
58
0.67
PPG
2.10
16.7%
Win rate
62.1%
16.7%
Draw rate
24.1%
66.7%
Loss rate
13.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
72.4%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
53.4%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
28
0.00
PPG
1.82
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
32.1%
100.0%
Loss rate
17.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.83
Goals for per game
2.57
33.3%
Scoring rate
96.6%
33.3%
BTTS rate
62.1%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.04
0.0%
Scoring rate
96.4%
0.0%
BTTS rate
64.3%
6
History Matches
58
0.83
Goals Mean
2.57
1.21
Goals Std
1.60
33.3%
Scored 1+ rate
96.6%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
72.4%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
39.7%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.50
Goals against per game
1.19
100.0%
Conceding rate
63.8%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.29
100.0%
Conceding rate
64.3%
6
History Matches
58
2.50
Conceded Mean
1.19
0.96
Conceded Std
1.20
83.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.2%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
2.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
3.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
3.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
3.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
3.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
58
0.79
Result entropy
0.83
2.05
Goal Difference Std
2.09
21.03
Stability score
16.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
58
1
Lead Matches
29
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.86
5
Trailing Matches
10
20.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
1.19
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.38
1.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
328.9
Rest days
72.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
7
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.71
0
Normal Rest History Matches
28
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.04
5
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.21
—
Portability PPG Range
0.46
—
Portability Score
69.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-176.5
PPG-1.44
GF-1.74
GA1.31
PPG-1.82
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.83
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-52
Clean-sheet rate-0.36
Failed-to-score rate63.2%
History Matches-25
Clean-sheet rate-0.36
Failed-to-score rate96.4%
History Matches-52
Goals Mean-1.74
Goals Std-0.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.63
Scored 2+ rate-0.39
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-2.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.67
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches-52
Conceded Mean1.31
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.36
Conceded 2+ rate47.1%
Conceded 3+ rate37.9%
Venue Conceded Mean1.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-52
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score4.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches-52
Lead Matches-28
Lead Win Rate17.2%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-52
First Half Goals For Mean-0.86
First Half Goals Against Mean0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.78
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days256.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest History Matches-28
Long Rest History Matches-17
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.15
Current Team ELO-176.5
Current Opponent ELO176.5
Current ELO Difference-352.9
Expected score-0.47
History Matches-52
Residual Mean-0.36
Overperformance-14.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pafos U19

L
Benfica U196–0Pafos U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Benfica U19 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Benfica U19

W
Benfica U196–0Pafos U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Benfica U19 69% · hit
D
Casa Pia U190–0Benfica U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Benfica U19 45% · missed
W
Benfica U194–0Sporting CP U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Benfica U19 47% · hit
W
Benfica U195–0União Leiria U1929 Aug · home
Pick: Benfica U19 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pafos U19 and Benfica U19 meet in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Pafos U19 win 18.4%, draw 16.7%, Benfica U19 win 64.9%. The pick is Benfica U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.7%. Both teams to score: 57.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.