ScoreProb
UEFA Youth League World League Phase - 4 2026

Porto U19 vs Napoli U19

Porto U19 Home · Elo 1,689
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Napoli U19 Away · Elo 1,546
Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes, Vila Nova de Gaia Referee: F. Lata Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Porto U19 win
Porto U19 winPick
67.8%
Draw
16.8%
Napoli U19 win
15.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.9%
Under 2.530.1%

How much we know

Porto U19 history51 matches
Napoli U19 history23 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Porto U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Porto U19 are rated 143 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,689 against 1,546. On rating alone Porto U19 would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Porto U19 score far more

    2.76 goals a game over 51 matches for Porto U19, against 1.43 over 23 for Napoli U19.

  • Napoli U19 concede fewer

    Porto U19 concede 1.25 a game, Napoli U19 1.00.

  • Porto U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    86% of Porto U19 matches, against 35% for Napoli U19. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Porto U19
Napoli U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1688.6
ELO
1545.8
51
ELO · Matches
23
1688.6
Current Team ELO
1545.8
1545.8
Current Opponent ELO
1688.6
142.8
Current ELO Difference
-142.8
0.69
Expected score
0.31
51
History Matches
23
0.19
Residual Mean
0.10
63.31
Overperformance
55.47
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.60
3.00
Goals for per game
0.90
0.90
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
23
2.35
PPG
1.70
74.5%
Win rate
43.5%
11.8%
Draw rate
39.1%
13.7%
Loss rate
17.4%
90.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
86.3%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
52.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
11
2.59
PPG
1.45
85.2%
Win rate
36.4%
3.7%
Draw rate
36.4%
11.1%
Loss rate
27.3%
96.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
92.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
48.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
27
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.76
Goals for per game
1.43
94.1%
Scoring rate
82.6%
62.7%
BTTS rate
52.2%
2.89
Goals for per game
1.27
96.3%
Scoring rate
72.7%
59.3%
BTTS rate
54.5%
51
History Matches
23
2.76
Goals Mean
1.43
1.73
Goals Std
1.28
94.1%
Scored 1+ rate
82.6%
76.5%
Scored 2+ rate
34.8%
54.9%
Scored 3+ rate
8.7%
2.89
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.25
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
60.9%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.36
63.0%
Conceding rate
72.7%
51
History Matches
23
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.22
Conceded Std
0.98
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.4%
13.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.7%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
23
0.68
Result entropy
0.94
2.20
Goal Difference Std
1.56
32.32
Stability score
5.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
22
26
Lead Matches
6
96.2%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.89
10
Trailing Matches
6
40.0%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.83
Rest days
329.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
28
Normal Rest History Matches
10
2.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.90
20
Long Rest History Matches
12
2.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.06
Portability PPG Range
0.94
53.53
Portability Score
51.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
23
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO142.8
PPG0.66
GF1.33
GA0.25
PPG1.14
PPG1.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches28
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate9.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches28
Goals Mean1.33
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate11.5%
Scored 2+ rate41.7%
Scored 3+ rate46.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.51
History Matches28
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches28
Result entropy-0.26
Goal Difference Std0.64
Stability score26.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.41
Eligible Matches29
Lead Matches20
Lead Win Rate12.8%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate3.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches29
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score2.02
Rest days-255.2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.88
Current Team ELO142.8
Current Opponent ELO-142.8
Current ELO Difference285.6
Expected score0.39
History Matches28
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance7.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Porto U19

L
Feirense U191–0Porto U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Porto U19 65% · missed
L
Academico Viseu U195–1Porto U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Porto U19 62% · missed
W
Porto U193–1PSV U1920 Oct · home
Pick: Porto U19 73% · hit
W
Porto U195–0Gil Vicente U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Porto U19 69% · hit
L
Real Betis U195–0Porto U1914 Oct · away
Pick: Porto U19 51% · missed

Napoli U19

D
Monopoli U190–0Napoli U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Monopoli U19 46% · missed
W
Napoli U193–1Spezia U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Spezia U19 42% · missed
W
Napoli U191–0Bodø / Glimt U1920 Oct · home
Pick: Napoli U19 69% · hit
D
Bari U191–1Napoli U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Bari U19 47% · missed
L
Villarreal U195–0Napoli U1913 Oct · away
Pick: Napoli U19 43% · missed

About this match

Porto U19 and Napoli U19 meet in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes, Vila Nova de Gaia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Porto U19 win 67.8%, draw 16.8%, Napoli U19 win 15.5%. The pick is Porto U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.9%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.