ScoreProb
National League - North England National League North - 16 2026

AFC Telford United vs Spalding United

AFC Telford United Home · Elo 1,516
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Spalding United Away · Elo 1,603
New Bucks Head, Telford Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AFC Telford United win
AFC Telford United winPick
43.3%
Draw
23.2%
Spalding United win
33.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.3%
No40.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.0%
Under 2.538.0%

How much we know

AFC Telford United history80 matches
Spalding United history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why AFC Telford United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Spalding United are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,516. On rating alone Spalding United would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.00 goals a game over 80 matches for AFC Telford United, against 2.14 over 69 for Spalding United.

  • Spalding United concede fewer

    AFC Telford United concede 1.36 a game, Spalding United 1.17.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of AFC Telford United matches, against 64% for Spalding United. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AFC Telford United
Spalding United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.2
ELO
1603.0
80
ELO · Matches
69
1516.2
Current Team ELO
1603.0
1603.0
Current Opponent ELO
1516.2
-86.77
Current ELO Difference
86.77
0.38
Expected score
0.62
80
History Matches
69
0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
51.34
Overperformance
55.61
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
69
1.56
PPG
1.91
41.3%
Win rate
56.5%
32.5%
Draw rate
21.7%
26.3%
Loss rate
21.7%
92.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.5%
66.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.8%
42.5%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
34
1.82
PPG
1.82
52.3%
Win rate
52.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
23.5%
22.7%
Loss rate
23.5%
93.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.3%
68.2%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
43.2%
Over 3.5 rate
38.2%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
44
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
2.14
87.5%
Scoring rate
84.1%
72.5%
BTTS rate
52.2%
2.20
Goals for per game
2.12
88.6%
Scoring rate
85.3%
70.5%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
80
History Matches
69
2.00
Goals Mean
2.14
1.64
Goals Std
1.59
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
52.5%
Scored 2+ rate
63.8%
28.8%
Scored 3+ rate
36.2%
2.20
Venue Goals Mean
2.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.17
81.3%
Conceding rate
63.8%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.29
79.5%
Conceding rate
64.7%
1.75
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
80
History Matches
69
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.17
0.94
Conceded Std
1.13
42.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.7%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.6%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.7%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
69
0.98
Result entropy
0.90
2.07
Goal Difference Std
2.05
1.54
Stability score
10.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
68
31
Lead Matches
29
58.1%
Lead Win Rate
86.2%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.90
21
Trailing Matches
17
38.1%
Non-loss rate
58.8%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.22
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
71
Normal Rest History Matches
62
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.87
5
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.75
Portability PPG Range
1.25
43.94
Portability Score
51.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-86.77
PPG-0.35
GF-0.14
GA0.19
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.01
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate3.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.37
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.47
History Matches11
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-8.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.28
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.50
Portability Score-7.53
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.33
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.10
Current Team ELO-86.77
Current Opponent ELO86.77
Current ELO Difference-173.5
Expected score-0.24
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AFC Telford United

W
Southport1–2AFC Telford United31 Oct · away
Pick: Southport 45% · missed
W
Hereford0–1AFC Telford United27 Oct · away
Pick: Hereford 50% · missed
D
AFC Telford United2–2Hebburn Town24 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Telford United 40% · missed
W
AFC Telford United2–1Darlington 188317 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Telford United 48% · hit
L
AFC Telford United0–1Bedford Town31 Aug · home
Pick: AFC Telford United 55% · missed

Spalding United

W
Spalding United3–2Darlington 188331 Oct · home
Pick: Spalding United 48% · hit
D
Spalding United2–2Brackley Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Spalding United 45% · missed
L
Hednesford Town2–0Spalding United24 Oct · away
Pick: Spalding United 38% · missed
D
Spalding United2–2Alvechurch17 Oct · home
Pick: Spalding United 40% · missed
D
South Shields1–1Spalding United31 Aug · away
Pick: South Shields 53% · missed

About this match

AFC Telford United and Spalding United meet in National League - North on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at New Bucks Head, Telford. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: AFC Telford United win 43.3%, draw 23.2%, Spalding United win 33.4%. The pick is AFC Telford United win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.0%. Both teams to score: 59.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.