ScoreProb
National League - North England National League North - 16 2026

Hednesford Town vs Morecambe

Hednesford Town Home · Elo 1,584
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Morecambe Away · Elo 1,403
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hednesford Town win
Hednesford Town winPick
49.9%
Draw
27.1%
Morecambe win
23.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

Hednesford Town history67 matches
Morecambe history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hednesford Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hednesford Town are rated 181 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,584 against 1,403. On rating alone Hednesford Town would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Hednesford Town score more

    1.60 goals a game over 67 matches for Hednesford Town, against 1.28 over 81 for Morecambe.

  • Hednesford Town concede fewer

    Hednesford Town concede 0.85 a game, Morecambe 1.90.

  • Morecambe games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Hednesford Town matches, against 57% for Morecambe. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hednesford Town
Morecambe
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1584.1
ELO
1402.8
67
ELO · Matches
81
1584.1
Current Team ELO
1402.8
1402.8
Current Opponent ELO
1584.1
181.3
Current ELO Difference
-181.3
0.74
Expected score
0.26
67
History Matches
81
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.06
55.29
Overperformance
45.21
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.50
1.60
Goals for per game
0.70
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.67
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
81
1.91
PPG
0.88
55.2%
Win rate
22.2%
25.4%
Draw rate
21.0%
19.4%
Loss rate
56.8%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.2%
41.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
42
2.14
PPG
0.81
62.2%
Win rate
21.4%
27.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
10.8%
Loss rate
61.9%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
37
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.28
79.1%
Scoring rate
65.4%
40.3%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.38
89.2%
Scoring rate
64.3%
45.9%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
81
1.60
Goals Mean
1.28
1.33
Goals Std
1.34
79.1%
Scored 1+ rate
65.4%
47.8%
Scored 2+ rate
34.6%
20.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.8%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.85
Goals against per game
1.90
53.7%
Conceding rate
84.0%
0.70
Goals against per game
2.12
48.6%
Conceding rate
85.7%
2.25
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
81
0.85
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.05
Conceded Std
1.43
19.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.8%
7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.2%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
2.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
46.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
51.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
46.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
51.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
46.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
81
0.90
Result entropy
0.89
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.99
9.52
Stability score
10.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
81
28
Lead Matches
19
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
63.2%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.74
14
Trailing Matches
29
35.7%
Non-loss rate
13.8%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.14
56
Normal Rest History Matches
61
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.84
8
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
0.25
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.43
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.25
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.72
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.96
Portability PPG Range
1.75
41.01
Portability Score
45.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO181.3
PPG1.03
GF0.31
GA-1.05
PPG0.25
PPG1.33
PPG0.80
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate30.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate37.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-14
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate13.7%
Scored 2+ rate13.2%
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-1.05
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate30.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.37
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches-14
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.93
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate15.4%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate21.9%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.65
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-4.90
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.86
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.09
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO181.3
Current Opponent ELO-181.3
Current ELO Difference362.7
Expected score0.48
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance10.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hednesford Town

W
Chester0–1Hednesford Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Chester 62% · missed
L
Bedford Town1–0Hednesford Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Bedford Town 38% · hit
W
Hednesford Town2–0Spalding United24 Oct · home
Pick: Spalding United 38% · missed
W
Hednesford Town3–2Brackley Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Hednesford Town 40% · hit
D
Spennymoor Town1–1Hednesford Town31 Aug · away
Pick: Spennymoor Town 43% · missed

Morecambe

W
Morecambe2–0Scarborough Athletic31 Oct · home
Pick: Scarborough Athletic 46% · missed
W
Morecambe1–0Darlington 188327 Oct · home
Pick: Morecambe 38% · hit
W
Merthyr Town1–3Morecambe24 Oct · away
Pick: Merthyr Town 51% · missed
L
AFC Rushden & Diamonds2–1Morecambe17 Oct · away
Pick: Morecambe 50% · missed
W
Chester0–1Morecambe31 Aug · away
Pick: Chester 66% · missed

About this match

Hednesford Town and Morecambe meet in National League - North on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hednesford Town win 49.9%, draw 27.1%, Morecambe win 23.0%. The pick is Hednesford Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.