ScoreProb
National League - North England National League North - 16 2026

Brackley Town vs Chester

Brackley Town Home · Elo 1,450
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chester Away · Elo 1,631
St James Park, Brackley Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chester win
Brackley Town win
27.7%
Draw
28.3%
Chester winPick
44.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.8%
Under 2.553.2%

How much we know

Brackley Town history87 matches
Chester history88 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Chester are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chester are rated 181 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,631 against 1,450. On rating alone Chester would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Chester score more

    1.28 goals a game over 87 matches for Brackley Town, against 1.43 over 88 for Chester.

  • Chester concede fewer

    Brackley Town concede 1.40 a game, Chester 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Brackley Town matches, against 50% for Chester. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brackley Town
Chester
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1450.1
ELO
1631.4
87
ELO · Matches
88
1450.1
Current Team ELO
1631.4
1631.4
Current Opponent ELO
1450.1
-181.3
Current ELO Difference
181.3
0.26
Expected score
0.74
87
History Matches
88
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
47.85
Overperformance
55.48
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.50
0.70
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.20
30.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.20
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.40
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals
90
87
Matches
88
1.33
PPG
1.73
36.8%
Win rate
48.9%
23.0%
Draw rate
26.1%
40.2%
Loss rate
25.0%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
47
1.61
PPG
1.79
45.5%
Win rate
53.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
19.1%
29.5%
Loss rate
27.7%
65.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.9%
34.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.3%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
19.1%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
44
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.43
70.1%
Scoring rate
84.1%
51.7%
BTTS rate
55.7%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.43
72.7%
Scoring rate
85.1%
45.5%
BTTS rate
51.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
87
History Matches
88
1.28
Goals Mean
1.43
1.27
Goals Std
0.96
70.1%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
35.6%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
10.3%
Scored 3+ rate
10.2%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.14
74.7%
Conceding rate
68.2%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.19
65.9%
Conceding rate
63.8%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
87
History Matches
88
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.23
Conceded Std
1.09
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.4%
17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.6%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
29.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
29.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
87
History Matches
88
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.58
2.41
Stability score
4.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
87
Eligible Matches
87
24
Lead Matches
30
79.2%
Lead Win Rate
76.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.83
25
Trailing Matches
18
20.0%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
12.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
67
Normal Rest History Matches
77
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
11
Long Rest History Matches
6
0.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
3.00
25.0%
Win rate
100.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.43
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
8
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.35
Portability PPG Range
2.00
51.28
Portability Score
46.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
87
Clean History Matches
88
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-181.3
PPG-0.39
GF-0.16
GA0.27
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.17
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate14.0%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate12.4%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score-2.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.21
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate2.5%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate0.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.65
Portability Score4.57
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO-181.3
Current Opponent ELO181.3
Current ELO Difference-362.6
Expected score-0.48
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-7.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Brackley Town

W
Worksop Town0–1Brackley Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Worksop Town 44% · missed
D
Spalding United2–2Brackley Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Spalding United 45% · missed
L
Brackley Town0–1Radcliffe24 Oct · home
Pick: Brackley Town 49% · missed
L
Hednesford Town3–2Brackley Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Hednesford Town 40% · hit
D
Chorley2–2Brackley Town31 Aug · away
Pick: Chorley 49% · missed

Chester

L
Chester0–1Hednesford Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Chester 62% · missed
W
Chester2–1Marine27 Oct · home
Pick: Chester 58% · hit
L
South Shields3–1Chester24 Oct · away
Pick: Chester 35% · missed
L
Chester0–1Morecambe31 Aug · home
Pick: Chester 66% · missed
D
Hereford1–1Chester29 Aug · away
Pick: Hereford 37% · missed

About this match

Brackley Town and Chester meet in National League - North on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at St James Park, Brackley. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Brackley Town win 27.7%, draw 28.3%, Chester win 44.0%. The pick is Chester win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.8%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.