ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 11 2026

Águilas vs Gimnastic

Águilas Home · Elo 1,591
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gimnastic Away · Elo 1,463
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Águilas win
Águilas winPick
35.9%
Draw
33.7%
Gimnastic win
30.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.7%
Under 2.555.3%

How much we know

Águilas history55 matches
Gimnastic history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Águilas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Águilas are rated 128 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,591 against 1,463. On rating alone Águilas would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.15 goals a game over 55 matches for Águilas, against 1.22 over 72 for Gimnastic.

  • Águilas concede fewer

    Águilas concede 0.78 a game, Gimnastic 1.28.

  • Gimnastic games more often go over 2.5 goals

    31% of Águilas matches, against 44% for Gimnastic. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Águilas
Gimnastic
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1590.9
ELO
1463.3
55
ELO · Matches
72
1590.9
Current Team ELO
1463.3
1463.3
Current Opponent ELO
1590.9
127.5
Current ELO Difference
-127.5
0.68
Expected score
0.32
55
History Matches
72
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.03
56.31
Overperformance
47.79
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.90
0.40
Goals against per game
1.50
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
72
1.75
PPG
1.29
50.9%
Win rate
34.7%
21.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
27.3%
Loss rate
40.3%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
30.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
12.7%
Over 3.5 rate
23.6%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
37
1.93
PPG
1.00
58.6%
Win rate
24.3%
17.2%
Draw rate
27.0%
24.1%
Loss rate
48.6%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.3%
37.9%
Over 2.5 rate
35.1%
10.3%
Over 3.5 rate
18.9%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
29
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.15
Goals for per game
1.22
70.9%
Scoring rate
68.1%
40.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.34
Goals for per game
0.95
72.4%
Scoring rate
59.5%
41.4%
BTTS rate
45.9%
55
History Matches
72
1.15
Goals Mean
1.22
0.96
Goals Std
1.11
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
68.1%
32.7%
Scored 2+ rate
40.3%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.78
Goals against per game
1.28
58.2%
Conceding rate
76.4%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.35
58.6%
Conceding rate
78.4%
55
History Matches
72
0.78
Conceded Mean
1.28
0.80
Conceded Std
1.00
16.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
3.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
41.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
41.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
72
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
1.31
Goal Difference Std
1.57
6.23
Stability score
1.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
72
21
Lead Matches
18
90.5%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.93
11
Trailing Matches
29
27.3%
Non-loss rate
24.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.71
Rest days
78.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
23
Long Rest History Matches
29
2.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.03
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.40
Portability PPG Range
1.15
75.38
Portability Score
55.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO127.5
PPG0.45
GF-0.08
GA-0.50
PPG0.93
PPG1.60
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-17
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate2.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean-0.50
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches-17
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score4.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate1.6%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-18
Non-loss rate3.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.75
Portability Score19.43
Rest days6.60
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.14
Current Team ELO127.5
Current Opponent ELO-127.5
Current ELO Difference255.1
Expected score0.35
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Águilas

D
Juventud Torremolinos0–0Águilas1 Nov · away
Pick: Juventud Torremolinos 39% · missed
L
Antequera2–0Águilas29 Oct · away
Pick: Águilas 36% · missed
D
Teruel1–1Águilas24 Oct · away
Pick: Teruel 41% · missed
L
Águilas1–2Ibiza17 Oct · home
Pick: Águilas 36% · missed
D
Águilas2–2Alcorcon30 Aug · home
Pick: Águilas 40% · missed

Gimnastic

L
Huesca2–0Gimnastic2 Nov · away
Pick: Huesca 42% · hit
W
Gimnastic4–2Hércules25 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnastic 47% · hit
W
Gimnastic2–1Atlético Madrid II18 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnastic 52% · hit
L
Real Murcia2–0Gimnastic4 Oct · away
Pick: Real Murcia 38% · hit
W
Gimnastic2–0Zaragoza30 Aug · home
Pick: Gimnastic 38% · hit

About this match

Águilas and Gimnastic meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Águilas win 35.9%, draw 33.7%, Gimnastic win 30.4%. The pick is Águilas win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.7%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.