ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 11 2026

Europa Fc vs Atlético Madrid II

Europa Fc Home · Elo 1,555
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlético Madrid II Away · Elo 1,532
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Europa Fc win
Europa Fc winPick
37.8%
Draw
32.6%
Atlético Madrid II win
29.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%

How much we know

Europa Fc history60 matches
Atlético Madrid II history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Europa Fc are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,555 against 1,532. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.48 goals a game over 60 matches for Europa Fc, against 1.39 over 59 for Atlético Madrid II.

  • Defences are close

    Europa Fc concede 1.20 a game, Atlético Madrid II 1.08.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Europa Fc matches, against 42% for Atlético Madrid II. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Europa Fc
Atlético Madrid II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1554.8
ELO
1531.9
60
ELO · Matches
59
1554.8
Current Team ELO
1531.9
1531.9
Current Opponent ELO
1554.8
22.89
Current ELO Difference
-22.89
0.53
Expected score
0.47
60
History Matches
59
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
52.83
Overperformance
51.80
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.10
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
1.70
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
59
1.67
PPG
1.56
45.0%
Win rate
42.4%
31.7%
Draw rate
28.8%
23.3%
Loss rate
28.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.2%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
30
2.04
PPG
1.07
57.1%
Win rate
26.7%
32.1%
Draw rate
26.7%
10.7%
Loss rate
46.7%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
28
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.48
Goals for per game
1.39
81.7%
Scoring rate
71.2%
51.7%
BTTS rate
49.2%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.17
85.7%
Scoring rate
63.3%
53.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
59
1.48
Goals Mean
1.39
1.15
Goals Std
1.25
81.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
43.3%
Scored 2+ rate
40.7%
15.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.6%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
1.08
63.3%
Conceding rate
66.1%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.37
60.7%
Conceding rate
80.0%
60
History Matches
59
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.19
Conceded Std
1.00
35.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.2%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
18.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
18.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
59
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.41
3.24
Stability score
1.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
59
23
Lead Matches
18
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
14
35.7%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
100.8
Rest days
86.71
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
28
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.82
Portability PPG Range
0.35
54.91
Portability Score
74.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO22.89
PPG0.11
GF0.09
GA0.12
PPG0.97
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate10.5%
Scored 2+ rate2.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Conceded 2+ rate2.8%
Conceded 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score1.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate7.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range0.47
Portability Score-19.08
Rest days14.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.20
Current Team ELO22.89
Current Opponent ELO-22.89
Current ELO Difference45.79
Expected score0.07
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Europa Fc

L
Ibiza3–0Europa Fc30 Oct · away
Pick: Ibiza 45% · hit
W
Calamocha0–3Europa Fc27 Oct · away
Pick: Europa Fc 38% · hit
L
Europa Fc0–1Zaragoza23 Oct · home
Pick: Zaragoza 37% · hit
L
FC Cartagena3–0Europa Fc16 Oct · away
Pick: Europa Fc 40% · missed
L
Huesca3–1Europa Fc4 Oct · away
Pick: Huesca 44% · hit

Atlético Madrid II

D
Atlético Madrid II1–1Alcorcon30 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Madrid II 36% · missed
D
Atlético Madrid II1–1Real Jaén25 Oct · home
Pick: Real Jaén 37% · missed
L
Gimnastic2–1Atlético Madrid II18 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnastic 52% · hit
D
Atlético Madrid II2–2Juventud Torremolinos30 Aug · home
Pick: Atlético Madrid II 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Europa Fc and Atlético Madrid II meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Europa Fc win 37.8%, draw 32.6%, Atlético Madrid II win 29.6%. The pick is Europa Fc win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.4%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.