ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 11 2026

Villarreal II vs Juventud Torremolinos

Villarreal II Home · Elo 1,569
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Juventud Torremolinos Away · Elo 1,497
Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Villarreal II win
Villarreal II winPick
52.3%
Draw
26.8%
Juventud Torremolinos win
20.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%

How much we know

Villarreal II history64 matches
Juventud Torremolinos history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Villarreal II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Villarreal II are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,497. On rating alone Villarreal II would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.41 goals a game over 64 matches for Villarreal II, against 1.32 over 57 for Juventud Torremolinos.

  • Villarreal II concede fewer

    Villarreal II concede 1.02 a game, Juventud Torremolinos 1.16.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Villarreal II matches, against 42% for Juventud Torremolinos. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villarreal II
Juventud Torremolinos
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1569.5
ELO
1496.8
64
ELO · Matches
57
1569.5
Current Team ELO
1496.8
1496.8
Current Opponent ELO
1569.5
72.62
Current ELO Difference
-72.62
0.60
Expected score
0.40
64
History Matches
57
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
54.09
Overperformance
49.34
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.50
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
57
1.55
PPG
1.46
40.6%
Win rate
38.6%
32.8%
Draw rate
29.8%
26.6%
Loss rate
31.6%
70.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
42.2%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
23.4%
Over 3.5 rate
24.6%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
30
1.81
PPG
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
31.3%
Draw rate
30.0%
18.8%
Loss rate
40.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
32
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.41
Goals for per game
1.32
75.0%
Scoring rate
78.9%
43.8%
BTTS rate
50.9%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.17
81.3%
Scoring rate
73.3%
40.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
57
1.41
Goals Mean
1.32
1.17
Goals Std
1.03
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
36.8%
21.9%
Scored 3+ rate
12.3%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
1.16
59.4%
Conceding rate
68.4%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.33
50.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
64
History Matches
57
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.10
Conceded Std
1.02
28.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
57
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.56
1.36
Stability score
0.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
57
25
Lead Matches
16
76.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.88
12
Trailing Matches
17
25.0%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.75
Rest days
112.7
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.34
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
32
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.66
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.47
Portability PPG Range
0.99
70.98
Portability Score
53.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO72.62
PPG0.09
GF0.09
GA-0.14
PPG0.61
PPG0.60
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate9.0%
Failed-to-score rate3.9%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate2.2%
Scored 3+ rate9.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate9.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score0.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.52
Portability Score17.81
Rest days-27.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO72.62
Current Opponent ELO-72.62
Current ELO Difference145.2
Expected score0.21
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Villarreal II

D
Zaragoza2–2Villarreal II31 Oct · away
Pick: Zaragoza 48% · missed
W
Villarreal II4–1FC Cartagena25 Oct · home
Pick: Villarreal II 49% · hit
W
Villarreal II2–0Teruel17 Oct · home
Pick: Villarreal II 41% · hit
L
Villarreal II0–1Ibiza4 Oct · home
Pick: Villarreal II 39% · missed
W
Rayo Majadahonda1–2Villarreal II29 Aug · away
Pick: Villarreal II 38% · hit

Juventud Torremolinos

D
Juventud Torremolinos0–0Águilas1 Nov · home
Pick: Juventud Torremolinos 39% · missed
W
Juventud Torremolinos1–0Real Murcia24 Oct · home
Pick: Real Murcia 47% · missed
D
Sant Andreu2–2Juventud Torremolinos18 Oct · away
Pick: Sant Andreu 52% · missed
D
Atlético Madrid II2–2Juventud Torremolinos30 Aug · away
Pick: Atlético Madrid II 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Villarreal II and Juventud Torremolinos meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Villarreal II win 52.3%, draw 26.8%, Juventud Torremolinos win 20.9%. The pick is Villarreal II win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.9%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.