ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 11 2026

Real Madrid II vs Hércules

Real Madrid II Home · Elo 1,560
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hércules Away · Elo 1,495
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Madrid II win
Real Madrid II winPick
46.7%
Draw
27.0%
Hércules win
26.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.1%
No48.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%

How much we know

Real Madrid II history69 matches
Hércules history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Real Madrid II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Madrid II are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,560 against 1,495. On rating alone Real Madrid II would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Real Madrid II score more

    1.48 goals a game over 69 matches for Real Madrid II, against 1.06 over 63 for Hércules.

  • Defences are close

    Real Madrid II concede 1.17 a game, Hércules 1.22.

  • Real Madrid II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Real Madrid II matches, against 40% for Hércules. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Madrid II
Hércules
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1559.9
ELO
1494.6
69
ELO · Matches
63
1559.9
Current Team ELO
1494.6
1494.6
Current Opponent ELO
1559.9
65.32
Current ELO Difference
-65.32
0.59
Expected score
0.41
69
History Matches
63
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
53.38
Overperformance
49.95
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
0.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
63
1.55
PPG
1.17
39.1%
Win rate
30.2%
37.7%
Draw rate
27.0%
23.2%
Loss rate
42.9%
72.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.8%
50.7%
Over 2.5 rate
39.7%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
17.5%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
31
1.80
PPG
0.68
48.6%
Win rate
12.9%
34.3%
Draw rate
29.0%
17.1%
Loss rate
58.1%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.7%
25.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.16
35
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.48
Goals for per game
1.06
73.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
55.1%
BTTS rate
47.6%
1.51
Goals for per game
0.87
80.0%
Scoring rate
61.3%
54.3%
BTTS rate
51.6%
69
History Matches
63
1.48
Goals Mean
1.06
1.27
Goals Std
0.92
73.9%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
46.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
1.51
Venue Goals Mean
0.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.17
Goals against per game
1.22
69.6%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.45
65.7%
Conceding rate
87.1%
69
History Matches
63
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.22
1.09
Conceded Std
1.09
30.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.5%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.9%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
63
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.41
2.26
Stability score
1.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
63
16
Lead Matches
9
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.85
18
Trailing Matches
16
33.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.88
Rest days
85.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
39
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.95
26
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.59
0.36
Portability PPG Range
1.42
78.80
Portability Score
45.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO65.32
PPG0.38
GF0.41
GA-0.05
PPG1.12
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate7.2%
Scored 2+ rate13.0%
Scored 3+ rate9.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.63
History Matches6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score0.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.46
Portability PPG Range-1.06
Portability Score32.94
Rest days-7.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.61
Current Team ELO65.32
Current Opponent ELO-65.32
Current ELO Difference130.6
Expected score0.19
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Madrid II

W
Real Madrid II2–0FC Cartagena31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Madrid II 53% · hit
L
Algeciras2–0Real Madrid II25 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid II 39% · missed
W
Real Madrid II3–2Antequera18 Oct · home
Pick: Real Madrid II 55% · hit
D
Teruel0–0Real Madrid II31 Aug · away
Pick: Real Madrid II 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hércules

W
Hércules2–0Rayo Majadahonda1 Nov · home
Pick: Hércules 39% · hit
L
Gimnastic4–2Hércules25 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnastic 47% · hit
L
Algeciras2–0Hércules17 Oct · away
Pick: Algeciras 34% · hit
W
Hércules1–0Sant Andreu12 Oct · home
Pick: Hércules 38% · hit
L
Hércules1–2Real Murcia29 Aug · home
Pick: Real Murcia 42% · hit

About this match

Real Madrid II and Hércules meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Real Madrid II win 46.7%, draw 27.0%, Hércules win 26.3%. The pick is Real Madrid II win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.4%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.