ScoreProb
Ligue A Burundi Round 12 2026

Aigle Noir vs Never Give Up Academy

Aigle Noir Home · Elo 1,663
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Never Give Up Academy Away · Elo 1,503
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aigle Noir win
Aigle Noir winPick
71.1%
Draw
19.2%
Never Give Up Academy win
9.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

Aigle Noir history50 matches
Never Give Up Academy history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.1%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Aigle Noir are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Aigle Noir are rated 159 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,663 against 1,503. On rating alone Aigle Noir would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Aigle Noir score far more

    1.86 goals a game over 50 matches for Aigle Noir, against 1.00 over 2 for Never Give Up Academy.

  • Aigle Noir concede fewer

    Aigle Noir concede 0.74 a game, Never Give Up Academy 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Aigle Noir matches, against 50% for Never Give Up Academy. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aigle Noir
Never Give Up Academy
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1662.5
ELO
1503.3
50
ELO · Matches
2
1662.5
Current Team ELO
1503.3
1503.3
Current Opponent ELO
1662.5
159.2
Current ELO Difference
-159.2
0.71
Expected score
0.29
50
History Matches
2
0.15
Residual Mean
-0.01
61.02
Overperformance
49.91
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
10
Matches
2
1.70
PPG
1.50
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
2
2.24
PPG
1.50
66.0%
Win rate
50.0%
26.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
8.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
2
2.54
PPG
1.50
79.2%
Win rate
50.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
4.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
24
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
1.00
86.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
58.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.00
87.5%
Scoring rate
50.0%
62.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
50
History Matches
2
1.86
Goals Mean
1.00
1.57
Goals Std
1.00
86.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
56.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
18.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.74
Goals against per game
1.00
62.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
2
0.74
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.66
Conceded Std
0.00
12.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
2
0.75
Result entropy
0.63
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.00
24.77
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
2
20
Lead Matches
1
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
1.00
4
Trailing Matches
0
50.0%
Non-loss rate
—
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.98
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
0
2.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
18
Long Rest History Matches
1
2.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.91
Portability PPG Std
—
2.00
Portability PPG Range
—
35.39
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO159.2
PPG0.74
GF0.86
GA-0.26
PPG0.50
PPG1.04
PPG0.50
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches48
Clean-sheet rate38.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches48
Goals Mean0.86
Goals Std0.57
Scored 1+ rate36.0%
Scored 2+ rate6.0%
Scored 3+ rate18.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches48
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std0.66
Clean-sheet rate38.0%
Conceded 2+ rate12.0%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.77
History Matches48
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std0.46
Stability score-12.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches38
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches4
Halftime Coverage Matches38
First Half Goals For Mean0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches30
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Current Team ELO159.2
Current Opponent ELO-159.2
Current ELO Difference318.4
Expected score0.43
History Matches48
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance11.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aigle Noir

L
Muzinga1–0Aigle Noir3 Nov · away
Pick: Aigle Noir 49% · missed
L
Aigle Noir0–1Bumamuru31 Oct · home
Pick: Aigle Noir 70% · missed
L
Rukinzo1–0Aigle Noir24 Oct · away
Pick: Aigle Noir 41% · missed
D
Aigle Noir1–1Royal Vision17 Oct · home
Pick: Aigle Noir 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Never Give Up Academy

W
Ngozi City1–2Never Give Up Academy1 Nov · away
Pick: Ngozi City 53% · missed
W
Never Give Up Academy2–1Vital'O25 Oct · home
Pick: Vital'O 40% · missed
D
Young Star0–0Never Give Up Academy17 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Aigle Noir and Never Give Up Academy meet in Ligue A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Aigle Noir win 71.1%, draw 19.2%, Never Give Up Academy win 9.6%. The pick is Aigle Noir win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.