ScoreProb
Ligue A Burundi Round 12 2026

Rukinzo vs Bumamuru

Rukinzo Home · Elo 1,571
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bumamuru Away · Elo 1,507
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rukinzo win
Rukinzo winPick
49.7%
Draw
27.5%
Bumamuru win
22.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.8%
No51.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.1%
Under 2.553.9%

How much we know

Rukinzo history45 matches
Bumamuru history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Rukinzo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rukinzo are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,571 against 1,507. On rating alone Rukinzo would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Rukinzo score more

    1.62 goals a game over 45 matches for Rukinzo, against 1.36 over 45 for Bumamuru.

  • Defences are close

    Rukinzo concede 0.91 a game, Bumamuru 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Rukinzo matches, against 42% for Bumamuru. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rukinzo
Bumamuru
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1570.8
ELO
1506.7
45
ELO · Matches
45
1570.8
Current Team ELO
1506.7
1506.7
Current Opponent ELO
1570.8
64.06
Current ELO Difference
-64.06
0.59
Expected score
0.41
45
History Matches
45
0.08
Residual Mean
0.00
55.53
Overperformance
50.28
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.70
1.70
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
45
1.67
PPG
1.56
46.7%
Win rate
42.2%
26.7%
Draw rate
28.9%
26.7%
Loss rate
28.9%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
48.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.2%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
1.70
PPG
1.61
47.8%
Win rate
43.5%
26.1%
Draw rate
30.4%
26.1%
Loss rate
26.1%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.36
71.1%
Scoring rate
75.6%
46.7%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.22
65.2%
Scoring rate
73.9%
39.1%
BTTS rate
43.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
45
History Matches
45
1.62
Goals Mean
1.36
1.48
Goals Std
1.16
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.6%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
28.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.91
Goals against per game
1.00
62.2%
Conceding rate
64.4%
0.83
Goals against per game
0.91
60.9%
Conceding rate
56.5%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
45
History Matches
45
0.91
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.84
Conceded Std
1.01
26.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.2%
2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
0.91
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.5%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.5%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
45
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.66
3.46
Stability score
1.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
35
14
Lead Matches
9
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.67
10
Trailing Matches
7
40.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.00
Rest days
77.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
21
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.05
0.05
Portability PPG Range
0.09
95.12
Portability Score
91.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO64.06
PPG0.11
GF0.27
GA-0.09
PPG1.50
PPG0.09
PPG1.40
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate4.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate4.4%
Scored 3+ rate17.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Conceded 2+ rate4.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score1.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate37.3%
Lead Points Retention0.29
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate25.7%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.04
Portability Score3.79
Rest days2.97
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO64.06
Current Opponent ELO-64.06
Current ELO Difference128.1
Expected score0.18
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rukinzo

L
Royal Vision1–0Rukinzo31 Oct · away
Pick: Royal Vision 38% · hit
W
Rukinzo1–0Aigle Noir24 Oct · home
Pick: Aigle Noir 41% · missed
W
Kayanza United1–3Rukinzo18 Oct · away
Pick: Rukinzo 43% · hit
D
Rukinzo0–0Olympic Star30 Aug · home
Pick: Rukinzo 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bumamuru

W
Aigle Noir0–1Bumamuru31 Oct · away
Pick: Aigle Noir 70% · missed
D
Bumamuru1–1Kayanza United25 Oct · home
Pick: Bumamuru 42% · missed
L
Ngozi City2–0Bumamuru18 Oct · away
Pick: Ngozi City 43% · hit
W
Bumamuru3–1Vital'O15 Oct · home
Pick: Vital'O 41% · missed
L
Bumamuru0–1Flambeau du Centre4 Oct · home
Pick: Flambeau du Centre 40% · hit

About this match

Rukinzo and Bumamuru meet in Ligue A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rukinzo win 49.7%, draw 27.5%, Bumamuru win 22.8%. The pick is Rukinzo win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.1%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.