ScoreProb
Damallsvenskan Sweden Round 25 2026

AIK W vs Uppsala W

AIK W Home · Elo 1,532
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Uppsala W Away · Elo 1,493
Skytteholms IP, Solna Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AIK W win
AIK W winPick
70.2%
Draw
15.3%
Uppsala W win
14.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.1%
No49.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.5%
Under 2.524.5%

How much we know

AIK W history47 matches
Uppsala W history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (70.2%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why AIK W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AIK W are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,493. On rating alone AIK W would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Uppsala W score more

    1.47 goals a game over 47 matches for AIK W, against 1.83 over 41 for Uppsala W.

  • Defences are close

    AIK W concede 1.57 a game, Uppsala W 1.71.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of AIK W matches, against 66% for Uppsala W. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AIK W
Uppsala W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.8
ELO
1492.9
47
ELO · Matches
41
1531.8
Current Team ELO
1492.9
1492.9
Current Opponent ELO
1531.8
38.90
Current ELO Difference
-38.90
0.56
Expected score
0.44
47
History Matches
41
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.27
Overperformance
49.06
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.43
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.00
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
5.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.10
1.40
Goals for per game
0.90
1.80
Goals against per game
4.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
4.00
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.90
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
41
1.49
PPG
1.59
46.8%
Win rate
48.8%
8.5%
Draw rate
12.2%
44.7%
Loss rate
39.0%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.5%
59.6%
Over 2.5 rate
65.9%
27.7%
Over 3.5 rate
53.7%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
21
1.87
PPG
1.19
60.9%
Win rate
38.1%
4.3%
Draw rate
4.8%
34.8%
Loss rate
57.1%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.90
23
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.83
72.3%
Scoring rate
70.7%
46.8%
BTTS rate
39.0%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.29
91.3%
Scoring rate
61.9%
47.8%
BTTS rate
28.6%
1.47
Goals for per game
0.87
86.7%
Scoring rate
46.7%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
47
History Matches
41
1.47
Goals Mean
1.83
1.43
Goals Std
1.71
72.3%
Scored 1+ rate
70.7%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
53.7%
14.9%
Scored 3+ rate
26.8%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.71
72.3%
Conceding rate
65.9%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.95
56.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.60
Goals against per game
3.13
73.3%
Conceding rate
86.7%
47
History Matches
41
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.71
1.47
Conceded Std
1.88
44.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.5%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.3%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
41
0.84
Result entropy
0.89
2.15
Goal Difference Std
3.02
15.81
Stability score
11.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
41
15
Lead Matches
15
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
1.00
15
Trailing Matches
17
20.0%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
19
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
25
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
1.60
PPG
0.40
46.7%
Win rate
6.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
73.3%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
73.3%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.64
15
Current Competition Matches
15
1.60
Current Competition PPG
0.40
-0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.27
4
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.77
Portability PPG Std
0.93
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.87
39.53
Portability Score
34.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO38.90
PPG-0.10
GF-0.36
GA-0.13
PPG1.20
PPG0.68
PPG1.20
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate1.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.41
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate3.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.88
Stability score4.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.29
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate8.2%
Trailing Win Rate14.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.13
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score4.67
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO38.90
Current Opponent ELO-38.90
Current ELO Difference77.80
Expected score0.11
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.53

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AIK W

W
Brommapojkarna W2–5AIK W31 Oct · away
Pick: Brommapojkarna W 38% · missed
W
AIK W2–0Rosengård W25 Oct · home
Pick: AIK W 48% · hit
L
Malmö FF W3–2AIK W17 Oct · away
Pick: Malmö FF W 68% · hit
L
Djurgården W2–1AIK W4 Oct · away
Pick: Djurgården W 43% · hit
L
AIK W0–1Kristianstad W29 Aug · home
Pick: AIK W 41% · missed

Uppsala W

L
Uppsala W0–7Hammarby W1 Nov · home
Pick: Hammarby W 88% · hit
L
Norrköping W5–0Uppsala W24 Oct · away
Pick: Norrköping W 70% · hit
L
Uppsala W0–5Kristianstad W17 Oct · home
Pick: Kristianstad W 67% · hit
L
Häcken W9–0Uppsala W4 Oct · away
Pick: Häcken W 91% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

AIK W and Uppsala W meet in Damallsvenskan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Skytteholms IP, Solna. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: AIK W win 70.2%, draw 15.3%, Uppsala W win 14.5%. The pick is AIK W win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.5%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.