ScoreProb
Damallsvenskan Sweden Round 25 2026

Kristianstad W vs Eskilstuna United W

Kristianstad W Home · Elo 1,558
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eskilstuna United W Away · Elo 1,604
Kristianstad Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kristianstad W win
Kristianstad W winPick
49.3%
Draw
22.9%
Eskilstuna United W win
27.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%
No45.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%

How much we know

Kristianstad W history48 matches
Eskilstuna United W history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kristianstad W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Eskilstuna United W are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,558. On rating alone Eskilstuna United W would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.75 goals a game over 48 matches for Kristianstad W, against 1.86 over 42 for Eskilstuna United W.

  • Eskilstuna United W concede fewer

    Kristianstad W concede 1.40 a game, Eskilstuna United W 0.86.

  • Kristianstad W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Kristianstad W matches, against 50% for Eskilstuna United W. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kristianstad W
Eskilstuna United W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1558.4
ELO
1603.8
48
ELO · Matches
42
1558.4
Current Team ELO
1603.8
1603.8
Current Opponent ELO
1558.4
-45.36
Current ELO Difference
45.36
0.44
Expected score
0.56
48
History Matches
42
0.06
Residual Mean
0.13
54.22
Overperformance
58.51
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.68
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.79
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
42
1.65
PPG
2.10
47.9%
Win rate
66.7%
20.8%
Draw rate
9.5%
31.3%
Loss rate
23.8%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
20
1.83
PPG
1.95
54.2%
Win rate
60.0%
20.8%
Draw rate
15.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
24
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.75
Goals for per game
1.86
75.0%
Scoring rate
76.2%
60.4%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.80
79.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
62.5%
BTTS rate
45.0%
1.80
Goals for per game
0.73
73.3%
Scoring rate
53.3%
53.3%
BTTS rate
13.3%
48
History Matches
42
1.75
Goals Mean
1.86
1.48
Goals Std
1.58
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.2%
56.3%
Scored 2+ rate
52.4%
27.1%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
0.86
83.3%
Conceding rate
52.4%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.15
83.3%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.13
80.0%
Conceding rate
53.3%
48
History Matches
42
1.40
Conceded Mean
0.86
1.11
Conceded Std
1.23
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.3%
10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.5%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
47.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
47.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
47.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
42
0.95
Result entropy
0.76
2.02
Goal Difference Std
2.30
5.08
Stability score
23.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
42
18
Lead Matches
22
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
17
Trailing Matches
7
35.3%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.26
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
20
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
1.47
PPG
1.53
40.0%
Win rate
46.7%
26.7%
Draw rate
13.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
46.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
26.7%
53.3%
Over 3.5 rate
6.7%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
15
Current Competition Matches
15
1.47
Current Competition PPG
1.53
0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
4
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.48
1.03
Portability PPG Range
0.97
55.15
Portability Score
50.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-45.36
PPG-0.45
GF-0.11
GA0.54
PPG-0.07
PPG-0.12
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate3.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.96
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.54
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Conceded 2+ rate23.2%
Conceded 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches6
Result entropy0.19
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score-18.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.67
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate21.0%
Trailing Win Rate17.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.53
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range0.07
Portability Score4.30
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.30
Current Team ELO-45.36
Current Opponent ELO45.36
Current ELO Difference-90.72
Expected score-0.13
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kristianstad W

L
Häcken W4–1Kristianstad W2 Nov · away
Pick: Häcken W 76% · hit
L
Kristianstad W1–2Malmö FF W24 Oct · home
Pick: Malmö FF W 49% · hit
W
Uppsala W0–5Kristianstad W17 Oct · away
Pick: Kristianstad W 67% · hit
W
AIK W0–1Kristianstad W29 Aug · away
Pick: AIK W 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Eskilstuna United W

W
Piteå W0–1Eskilstuna United W31 Oct · away
Pick: Piteå W 39% · missed
W
Eskilstuna United W2–1Brommapojkarna W24 Oct · home
Pick: Eskilstuna United W 59% · hit
L
Eskilstuna United W1–2Norrköping W17 Oct · home
Pick: Eskilstuna United W 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kristianstad W and Eskilstuna United W meet in Damallsvenskan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Kristianstad Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kristianstad W win 49.3%, draw 22.9%, Eskilstuna United W win 27.8%. The pick is Kristianstad W win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.0%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.