ScoreProb
Damallsvenskan Sweden Round 25 2026

Piteå W vs Malmö FF W

Piteå W Home · Elo 1,508
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Malmö FF W Away · Elo 1,617
LF Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Malmö FF W win
Piteå W win
19.4%
Draw
19.3%
Malmö FF W winPick
61.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.4%
No43.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%

How much we know

Piteå W history47 matches
Malmö FF W history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Malmö FF W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Malmö FF W are rated 108 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,617 against 1,508. On rating alone Malmö FF W would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Malmö FF W score far more

    1.34 goals a game over 47 matches for Piteå W, against 2.08 over 50 for Malmö FF W.

  • Malmö FF W concede fewer

    Piteå W concede 1.55 a game, Malmö FF W 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Piteå W matches, against 58% for Malmö FF W. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Piteå W
Malmö FF W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1508.3
ELO
1616.8
47
ELO · Matches
50
1508.3
Current Team ELO
1616.8
1616.8
Current Opponent ELO
1508.3
-108.5
Current ELO Difference
108.5
0.35
Expected score
0.65
47
History Matches
50
0.01
Residual Mean
0.11
50.55
Overperformance
57.89
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.20
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.10
Goals for per game
1.90
1.90
Goals against per game
0.50
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.21
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
50
1.32
PPG
1.92
38.3%
Win rate
58.0%
17.0%
Draw rate
18.0%
44.7%
Loss rate
24.0%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
63.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.0%
29.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.0%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
26
1.17
PPG
1.92
34.8%
Win rate
57.7%
13.0%
Draw rate
19.2%
52.2%
Loss rate
23.1%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
23
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
2.08
72.3%
Scoring rate
88.0%
57.4%
BTTS rate
52.0%
1.30
Goals for per game
2.27
69.6%
Scoring rate
88.5%
52.2%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.93
66.7%
Scoring rate
86.7%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
47
History Matches
50
1.34
Goals Mean
2.08
1.15
Goals Std
1.59
72.3%
Scored 1+ rate
88.0%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
12.8%
Scored 3+ rate
36.0%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
2.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.02
78.7%
Conceding rate
62.0%
1.65
Goals against per game
1.00
78.3%
Conceding rate
65.4%
1.60
Goals against per game
0.67
80.0%
Conceding rate
46.7%
47
History Matches
50
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.35
Conceded Std
0.99
40.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.0%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.0%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
50
0.94
Result entropy
0.88
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.01
6.34
Stability score
11.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
50
14
Lead Matches
28
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.89
13
Trailing Matches
12
15.4%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.09
25
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.72
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
1.20
PPG
1.73
33.3%
Win rate
46.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
46.7%
Loss rate
20.0%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
15
Current Competition Matches
15
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.73
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.27
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.06
Portability PPG Range
0.86
50.16
Portability Score
60.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-108.5
PPG-0.60
GF-0.74
GA0.53
PPG-0.53
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate15.7%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate18.9%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.74
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.96
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.77
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.53
Conceded Std0.36
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate11.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.77
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-5.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-10.59
Rest days-1.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO-108.5
Current Opponent ELO108.5
Current ELO Difference-216.9
Expected score-0.30
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Piteå W

L
Piteå W0–1Eskilstuna United W31 Oct · home
Pick: Piteå W 39% · missed
W
Vittsjö W0–2Piteå W25 Oct · away
Pick: Vittsjö W 47% · missed
L
Djurgården W3–2Piteå W18 Oct · away
Pick: Djurgården W 46% · hit
D
Brommapojkarna W1–1Piteå W30 Aug · away
Pick: Brommapojkarna W 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Malmö FF W

D
Malmö FF W1–1Norrköping W2 Nov · home
Pick: Malmö FF W 67% · missed
W
Kristianstad W1–2Malmö FF W24 Oct · away
Pick: Malmö FF W 49% · hit
W
Malmö FF W3–2AIK W17 Oct · home
Pick: Malmö FF W 68% · hit
W
Malmö FF W1–0Rosengård W4 Oct · home
Pick: Malmö FF W 67% · hit
W
Växjö W0–4Malmö FF W29 Aug · away
Pick: Malmö FF W 61% · hit

About this match

Piteå W and Malmö FF W meet in Damallsvenskan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at LF Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Piteå W win 19.4%, draw 19.3%, Malmö FF W win 61.4%. The pick is Malmö FF W win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.8%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.