ScoreProb
Premier League Russia Round 14 2026

Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva

Akhmat Home · Elo 1,567
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rodina Moskva Away · Elo 1,570
Akhmat-Arena, Groznyj Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Akhmat win
Akhmat winPick
61.6%
Draw
20.9%
Rodina Moskva win
17.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Akhmat history75 matches
Rodina Moskva history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Akhmat are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,567 against 1,570. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Rodina Moskva score more

    1.35 goals a game over 75 matches for Akhmat, against 1.56 over 68 for Rodina Moskva.

  • Defences are close

    Akhmat concede 1.16 a game, Rodina Moskva 1.09.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Akhmat matches, against 49% for Rodina Moskva. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Akhmat
Rodina Moskva@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1567.3
ELO
1570.0
75
ELO · Matches
68
1567.3
Current Team ELO
1570.0
1570.0
Current Opponent ELO
1567.3
-2.68
Current ELO Difference
2.68
0.50
Expected score
0.50
75
History Matches
68
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
53.29
Overperformance
53.42
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
0.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
0.90
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.69
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
68
1.41
PPG
1.68
37.3%
Win rate
45.6%
29.3%
Draw rate
30.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
23.5%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
36
2.00
PPG
1.53
61.1%
Win rate
41.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
27.8%
22.2%
Loss rate
30.6%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
63.9%
47.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
13.9%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
36
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.56
80.0%
Scoring rate
69.1%
57.3%
BTTS rate
45.6%
1.64
Goals for per game
1.28
88.9%
Scoring rate
61.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
75
History Matches
68
1.35
Goals Mean
1.56
0.99
Goals Std
1.46
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.1%
38.7%
Scored 2+ rate
48.5%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
22.1%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.16
Goals against per game
1.09
73.3%
Conceding rate
58.8%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.08
58.3%
Conceding rate
63.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
75
History Matches
68
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.09
0.94
Conceded Std
1.23
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.9%
8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
68
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.90
0.44
Stability score
3.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
67
23
Lead Matches
28
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.89
24
Trailing Matches
13
25.0%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
76.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.63
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
43
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.80
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.20
8
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.81
Portability PPG Std
0.63
2.33
Portability PPG Range
1.30
38.31
Portability Score
44.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-2.68
PPG-0.26
GF-0.21
GA0.07
PPG0.20
PPG0.47
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.47
Scored 1+ rate10.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.15
History Matches7
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.48
Stability score-2.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.67
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.40
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range1.03
Portability Score-6.10
Rest days0.89
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.29
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Current Team ELO-2.68
Current Opponent ELO2.68
Current ELO Difference-5.36
Expected score-0.01
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Akhmat

L
Dynamo2–0Akhmat31 Oct · away
Pick: Dynamo 45% · hit
L
Akhmat0–1FC Orenburg23 Oct · home
Pick: Akhmat 61% · missed
L
Zenit3–2Akhmat18 Oct · away
Pick: Zenit 67% · hit
L
Akhmat1–2Dynamo14 Oct · home
Pick: Akhmat 48% · missed
D
Akhmat3–3Krylia Sovetov29 Aug · home
Pick: Akhmat 59% · missed

Rodina Moskva

W
Rodina Moskva2–1FC Krasnodar31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Krasnodar 55% · missed
L
FC Orenburg2–1Rodina Moskva28 Oct · away
Pick: Rodina Moskva 42% · missed
W
Fakel0–1Rodina Moskva24 Oct · away
Pick: Fakel 48% · missed
D
Rodina Moskva2–2FC Orenburg19 Oct · home
Pick: Rodina Moskva 40% · missed
L
Rodina Moskva2–4Spartak Moscow15 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Moscow 46% · hit

About this match

Akhmat and Rodina Moskva meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Akhmat-Arena, Groznyj. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Akhmat win 61.6%, draw 20.9%, Rodina Moskva win 17.5%. The pick is Akhmat win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 53.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.