ScoreProb
Division 1 Saudi Arabia Round 11 2026

Al-Adalah vs Al Orubah

Al-Adalah Home · Elo 1,439
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Orubah Away · Elo 1,533
Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium, Al Ahsa Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al-Adalah win
Al-Adalah winPick
43.3%
Draw
24.7%
Al Orubah win
32.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%
No42.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.1%
Under 2.540.9%

How much we know

Al-Adalah history54 matches
Al Orubah history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 14:35 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al-Adalah are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Orubah are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,533 against 1,439. On rating alone Al Orubah would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Al Orubah score more

    1.30 goals a game over 54 matches for Al-Adalah, against 1.45 over 55 for Al Orubah.

  • Al Orubah concede fewer

    Al-Adalah concede 1.81 a game, Al Orubah 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Al-Adalah matches, against 64% for Al Orubah. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al-Adalah
Al Orubah
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1439.2
ELO
1533.2
54
ELO · Matches
55
1439.2
Current Team ELO
1533.2
1533.2
Current Opponent ELO
1439.2
-94.06
Current ELO Difference
94.06
0.37
Expected score
0.63
54
History Matches
55
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
46.19
Overperformance
52.55
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
0.60
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
55
1.13
PPG
1.58
27.8%
Win rate
47.3%
29.6%
Draw rate
16.4%
42.6%
Loss rate
36.4%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
38.2%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
26
1.04
PPG
1.77
21.4%
Win rate
53.8%
39.3%
Draw rate
15.4%
39.3%
Loss rate
30.8%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
28
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.45
81.5%
Scoring rate
69.1%
70.4%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.62
82.1%
Scoring rate
73.1%
78.6%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
54
History Matches
55
1.30
Goals Mean
1.45
0.92
Goals Std
1.26
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
69.1%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
47.3%
9.3%
Scored 3+ rate
21.8%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.81
Goals against per game
1.44
87.0%
Conceding rate
78.2%
1.86
Goals against per game
1.54
92.9%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
55
1.81
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.44
Conceded Std
1.22
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
27.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.85
1.72
Stability score
7.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
55
15
Lead Matches
17
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.82
24
Trailing Matches
17
41.7%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.89
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.86
Rest days
75.86
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
37
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
16
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.35
0.62
Portability PPG Range
0.71
61.82
Portability Score
58.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-94.06
PPG-0.45
GF-0.16
GA0.38
PPG1.00
PPG-0.73
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate12.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.71
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate4.4%
Conceded 3+ rate11.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.87
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-5.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate18.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.09
Portability Score3.31
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-94.06
Current Opponent ELO94.06
Current ELO Difference-188.1
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al-Adalah

D
Jeddah Club2–2Al-Adalah1 Nov · away
Pick: Jeddah Club 50% · missed
L
Al-Adalah0–1Al Jeel27 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Adalah 64% · missed
W
Al Okhdood1–3Al-Adalah20 Oct · away
Pick: Al Okhdood 47% · missed
D
Al-Adalah1–1Al Anwar12 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Adalah 45% · missed
W
Al Bukayriyah0–1Al-Adalah31 Aug · away
Pick: Al Bukayriyah 47% · missed

Al Orubah

L
Al Orubah0–1Al Anwar2 Nov · home
Pick: Al Orubah 48% · missed
L
Al Ula3–1Al Orubah26 Oct · away
Pick: Al Ula 57% · hit
D
Al Orubah1–1Al Bukayriyah20 Oct · home
Pick: Al Orubah 41% · missed
D
Al Orubah1–1Al Zulfi1 Sep · home
Pick: Al Orubah 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al-Adalah and Al Orubah meet in Division 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 14:35 UTC. The match is played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium, Al Ahsa. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Al-Adalah win 43.3%, draw 24.7%, Al Orubah win 32.0%. The pick is Al-Adalah win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.1%. Both teams to score: 57.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.