ScoreProb
Premier League Kuwait Round 8 2026

Al Arabi vs Al Nasar

Al Arabi Home · Elo 1,618
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Nasar Away · Elo 1,473
Sabah Al Salem Stadium, Kuwait Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Arabi win
Al Arabi winPick
63.2%
Draw
21.4%
Al Nasar win
15.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%

How much we know

Al Arabi history57 matches
Al Nasar history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:25 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Al Arabi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Arabi are rated 145 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,618 against 1,473. On rating alone Al Arabi would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Al Arabi score more

    1.65 goals a game over 57 matches for Al Arabi, against 1.27 over 37 for Al Nasar.

  • Al Arabi concede fewer

    Al Arabi concede 0.81 a game, Al Nasar 1.43.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Al Arabi matches, against 51% for Al Nasar. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Arabi
Al Nasar@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1618.4
ELO
1473.3
57
ELO · Matches
37
1618.4
Current Team ELO
1473.3
1473.3
Current Opponent ELO
1618.4
145.1
Current ELO Difference
-145.1
0.70
Expected score
0.30
57
History Matches
37
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.04
58.08
Overperformance
47.34
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
37
1.91
PPG
1.11
54.4%
Win rate
29.7%
28.1%
Draw rate
21.6%
17.5%
Loss rate
48.6%
75.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.0%
45.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
19.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
20
2.13
PPG
0.90
61.3%
Win rate
25.0%
29.0%
Draw rate
15.0%
9.7%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
38.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
9.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
31
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.65
Goals for per game
1.27
80.7%
Scoring rate
62.2%
45.6%
BTTS rate
45.9%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.20
90.3%
Scoring rate
60.0%
51.6%
BTTS rate
40.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
100.0%
BTTS rate
—
57
History Matches
37
1.65
Goals Mean
1.27
1.21
Goals Std
1.41
80.7%
Scored 1+ rate
62.2%
52.6%
Scored 2+ rate
29.7%
22.8%
Scored 3+ rate
21.6%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.81
Goals against per game
1.43
56.1%
Conceding rate
75.7%
0.68
Goals against per game
1.60
54.8%
Conceding rate
75.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
57
History Matches
37
0.81
Conceded Mean
1.43
0.93
Conceded Std
1.28
15.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.2%
0.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
19.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
45.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
19.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
45.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
37
0.90
Result entropy
0.95
1.56
Goal Difference Std
2.09
9.59
Stability score
5.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
37
23
Lead Matches
10
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.83
8
Trailing Matches
13
50.0%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.94
Rest days
133.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
38
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.83
13
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
1.00
PPG
—
0.0%
Win rate
—
100.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
1.00
Current Competition PPG
—
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
11
Competition Season Count
6
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.54
51.32
Portability Score
68.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO145.1
PPG0.80
GF0.38
GA-0.63
PPG1.23
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate19.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate20.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches20
Goals Mean0.38
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate18.5%
Scored 2+ rate22.9%
Scored 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches20
Conceded Mean-0.63
Conceded Std-0.36
Clean-sheet rate19.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches20
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.52
Stability score4.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate34.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.96
Portability Score-16.72
Rest days-59.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.09
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO145.1
Current Opponent ELO-145.1
Current ELO Difference290.1
Expected score0.39
History Matches20
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance10.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Arabi

W
Al Qadsia0–3Al Arabi1 Nov · away
Pick: Al Qadsia 49% · missed
L
Al Arabi1–3Al Nejmeh23 Oct · home
Pick: Al Arabi 44% · missed
L
Istiqlol2–0Al Arabi20 Oct · away
Pick: Al Arabi 41% · missed
L
Al Arabi0–1Wathba17 Oct · home
Pick: Al Arabi 56% · missed
L
Al Jahra2–1Al Arabi30 Aug · away
Pick: Al Arabi 51% · missed

Al Nasar

D
Al Nasar2–2Al Shabab2 Nov · home
Pick: Al Nasar 42% · missed
W
Al Sahel0–3Al Nasar24 Oct · away
Pick: Al Sahel 42% · missed
W
Al Nasar2–1Al Tadhamon18 Oct · home
Pick: Al Nasar 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Arabi and Al Nasar meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:25 UTC. The match is played at Sabah Al Salem Stadium, Kuwait. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Al Arabi win 63.2%, draw 21.4%, Al Nasar win 15.4%. The pick is Al Arabi win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.1%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.