ScoreProb
Premier League Kuwait Round 8 2026

Al Salmiyah vs Kazma

Al Salmiyah Home · Elo 1,533
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kazma Away · Elo 1,545
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Salmiyah win
Al Salmiyah winPick
41.0%
Draw
27.8%
Kazma win
31.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%

How much we know

Al Salmiyah history41 matches
Kazma history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:25 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al Salmiyah are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,533 against 1,545. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Kazma score more

    1.24 goals a game over 41 matches for Al Salmiyah, against 1.39 over 38 for Kazma.

  • Kazma concede fewer

    Al Salmiyah concede 1.29 a game, Kazma 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Al Salmiyah matches, against 39% for Kazma. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 30 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Salmiyah
Kazma@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1533.5
ELO
1544.6
41
ELO · Matches
38
1533.5
Current Team ELO
1544.6
1544.6
Current Opponent ELO
1533.5
-11.15
Current ELO Difference
11.15
0.48
Expected score
0.52
41
History Matches
38
0.04
Residual Mean
0.07
52.68
Overperformance
54.56
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
38
1.34
PPG
1.47
34.1%
Win rate
36.8%
31.7%
Draw rate
36.8%
34.1%
Loss rate
26.3%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
46.3%
Over 2.5 rate
39.5%
26.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
17
1.75
PPG
1.35
50.0%
Win rate
35.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
29.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
35.3%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
20
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.24
Goals for per game
1.39
80.5%
Scoring rate
78.9%
58.5%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.55
Goals for per game
1.18
85.0%
Scoring rate
76.5%
60.0%
BTTS rate
52.9%
41
History Matches
38
1.24
Goals Mean
1.39
0.90
Goals Std
1.06
80.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
31.7%
Scored 2+ rate
42.1%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
13.2%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
1.11
70.7%
Conceding rate
65.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.24
65.0%
Conceding rate
70.6%
41
History Matches
38
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.19
Conceded Std
1.12
34.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.3%
19.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
38
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.41
0.05
Stability score
1.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
38
13
Lead Matches
17
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.71
15
Trailing Matches
6
33.3%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.32
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
131.9
Rest days
131.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
18
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.61
Portability PPG Range
0.89
66.77
Portability Score
57.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-11.15
PPG-0.13
GF-0.15
GA0.19
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score-1.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.01
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate4.5%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.28
Portability Score9.01
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Current Team ELO-11.15
Current Opponent ELO11.15
Current ELO Difference-22.30
Expected score-0.03
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Salmiyah

D
Al Sulaibikhat2–2Al Salmiyah31 Oct · away
Pick: Al Salmiyah 39% · missed
W
Al Salmiyah1–0Al Jahra24 Oct · home
Pick: Al Salmiyah 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kazma

W
Kazma2–1Al Sulaibikhat23 Oct · home
Pick: Kazma 46% · hit
W
Al Jahra0–1Kazma19 Oct · away
Pick: Kazma 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Salmiyah and Kazma meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:25 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Al Salmiyah win 41.0%, draw 27.8%, Kazma win 31.2%. The pick is Al Salmiyah win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.0%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.