ScoreProb
Second Division Qatar Round 6 2026

Al Bidda SC vs Muaither SC

Al Bidda SC Home · Elo 1,447
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Muaither SC Away · Elo 1,521
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Bidda SC win
Al Bidda SC winPick
45.8%
Draw
24.5%
Muaither SC win
29.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.1%
Under 2.540.9%

How much we know

Al Bidda SC history36 matches
Muaither SC history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al Bidda SC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Muaither SC are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,447. On rating alone Muaither SC would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Muaither SC score more

    1.22 goals a game over 36 matches for Al Bidda SC, against 1.64 over 39 for Muaither SC.

  • Defences are close

    Al Bidda SC concede 1.64 a game, Muaither SC 1.64.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Al Bidda SC matches, against 59% for Muaither SC. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Bidda SC
Muaither SC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.5
ELO
1521.3
36
ELO · Matches
39
1447.5
Current Team ELO
1521.3
1521.3
Current Opponent ELO
1447.5
-73.80
Current ELO Difference
73.80
0.40
Expected score
0.60
36
History Matches
39
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.02
45.02
Overperformance
51.33
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
36
Matches
39
1.08
PPG
1.44
27.8%
Win rate
38.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
28.2%
47.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
43.6%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
21
1.06
PPG
1.29
29.4%
Win rate
33.3%
17.6%
Draw rate
28.6%
52.9%
Loss rate
38.1%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
17
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
1.64
63.9%
Scoring rate
74.4%
55.6%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.38
58.8%
Scoring rate
57.1%
58.8%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
36
History Matches
39
1.22
Goals Mean
1.64
1.13
Goals Std
1.39
63.9%
Scored 1+ rate
74.4%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
46.2%
19.4%
Scored 3+ rate
30.8%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.64
Goals against per game
1.64
86.1%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.76
Goals against per game
1.86
100.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
36
History Matches
39
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.64
0.98
Conceded Std
1.12
58.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.4%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
1.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
13.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
13.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
36
History Matches
39
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.66
3.82
Stability score
0.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
39
8
Lead Matches
10
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
12
21.4%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.00
Rest days
72.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
11
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
24
Long Rest History Matches
24
0.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.71
Portability PPG Range
1.07
63.16
Portability Score
53.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
36
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-73.80
PPG-0.35
GF-0.42
GA0.00
PPG1.00
PPG-0.23
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate10.5%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.38
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate1.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score3.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score9.99
Rest days0.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO-73.80
Current Opponent ELO73.80
Current ELO Difference-147.6
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-6.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Bidda SC

D
UMM Salal0–0Al Bidda SC29 Oct · away
Pick: UMM Salal 47% · missed
L
Al Kharaitiyat5–2Al Bidda SC15 Oct · away
Pick: Al Kharaitiyat 45% · hit
W
Al Bidda SC2–0Qatar U2331 Aug · home
Pick: Al Bidda SC 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Muaither SC

D
Al Shamal II1–1Muaither SC28 Oct · away
Pick: Al Shamal II 49% · missed
L
Muaither SC1–2Qatar U2315 Oct · home
Pick: Muaither SC 44% · missed
W
Muaither SC5–1Al Rayyan SC B31 Aug · home
Pick: Muaither SC 55% · hit
L
Al Mesaimeer1–0Muaither SC24 Aug · away
Pick: Muaither SC 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Bidda SC and Muaither SC meet in Second Division on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Al Bidda SC win 45.8%, draw 24.5%, Muaither SC win 29.7%. The pick is Al Bidda SC win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.1%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.