ScoreProb
Pro League Saudi Arabia Round 13 2026

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Ettifaq Home · Elo 1,548
Postponed
Thu 5 Nov
Was due at 17:00 UTC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Away · Elo 1,751
Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium Referee: to be announced Pick published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Match result probability Model pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC win
Al-Ettifaq win
22.0%
Draw
23.9%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC winPick
54.0%

No match played

If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.4%
Under 2.535.6%

How much we know

Al-Ettifaq history64 matches
Al-Hilal Saudi FC history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    5 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al-Hilal Saudi FC are rated 204 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,751 against 1,548. On rating alone Al-Hilal Saudi FC would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Al-Hilal Saudi FC score far more

    1.45 goals a game over 64 matches for Al-Ettifaq, against 2.48 over 82 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC.

  • Al-Hilal Saudi FC concede fewer

    Al-Ettifaq concede 1.45 a game, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0.99.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Al-Ettifaq matches, against 62% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al-Ettifaq
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1547.8
ELO
1751.4
64
ELO · Matches
82
1547.8
Current Team ELO
1751.4
1751.4
Current Opponent ELO
1547.8
-203.6
Current ELO Difference
203.6
0.24
Expected score
0.76
64
History Matches
82
0.03
Residual Mean
0.15
52.61
Overperformance
61.78
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.30
2.00
Goals for per game
1.90
1.70
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.48
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
82
1.47
PPG
2.26
40.6%
Win rate
67.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
24.4%
34.4%
Loss rate
8.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.8%
54.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
46.3%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
43
1.65
PPG
2.16
45.2%
Win rate
62.8%
29.0%
Draw rate
27.9%
25.8%
Loss rate
9.3%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.7%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
53.5%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.9%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
31
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
2.48
75.0%
Scoring rate
95.1%
59.4%
BTTS rate
57.3%
1.52
Goals for per game
2.23
77.4%
Scoring rate
95.3%
61.3%
BTTS rate
60.5%
2.33
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
82
1.45
Goals Mean
2.48
1.21
Goals Std
1.56
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
95.1%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
70.7%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
39.0%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
2.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
0.99
76.6%
Conceding rate
59.8%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.05
71.0%
Conceding rate
62.8%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
82
1.45
Conceded Mean
0.99
1.20
Conceded Std
1.03
42.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.8%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.0%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
4.9%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
4.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
4.9%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
4.7%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
82
0.98
Result entropy
0.75
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.88
1.73
Stability score
25.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
82
16
Lead Matches
49
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
87.8%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.92
22
Trailing Matches
15
22.7%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
26.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
1.22
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.26
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
71.96
Rest days
79.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
12
2.38
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
38
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.23
17
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
1
2.00
PPG
3.00
66.7%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
3
Current Competition Matches
1
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
8
Competition Season Count
10
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.75
Portability PPG Range
1.35
44.99
Portability Score
48.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-203.6
PPG-0.79
GF-1.02
GA0.47
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.52
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate20.1%
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate17.9%
History Matches-18
Goals Mean-1.02
Goals Std-0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.27
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches-18
Result entropy0.23
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-23.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.84
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-33
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.37
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-3.92
Rest days-8.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.12
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Current Team ELO-203.6
Current Opponent ELO203.6
Current ELO Difference-407.3
Expected score-0.53
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-9.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al-Ettifaq

D
Al Taawon1–1Al-Ettifaq31 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Ettifaq 42% · missed
W
Al Kholood0–3Al-Ettifaq24 Oct · away
Pick: Al Kholood 38% · missed
L
Al-Ettifaq1–4Al-Ittihad FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ittihad FC 38% · hit
W
NEOM0–1Al-Ettifaq17 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Ettifaq 38% · hit
L
Al-Ettifaq0–3Al Diriyah29 Aug · home
Pick: Al-Ettifaq 59% · missed

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

W
Al-Hilal Saudi FC2–0Shabab Al Ahli Dubai3 Nov · home
Pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% · hit
W
Al-Hilal Saudi FC2–0Al-Fateh31 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75% · hit
L
Al Shamal3–1Al-Hilal Saudi FC27 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% · missed
W
Al-Qadisiyah FC2–3Al-Hilal Saudi FC23 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% · hit
W
Al-Hilal Saudi FC1–0Al-Hazm19 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% · hit

About this match

Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC were due to play in Pro League on Thursday 5 November 2026, but the match was not played.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.