Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM
Al-Ittihad FC
Postponed
Thu 5 Nov
Was due at 17:00 UTC
NEOM
Match result probability Model pick: Al-Ittihad FC win
Al-Ittihad FC winPick
53.7%
Draw
26.2%
NEOM win
20.1%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes56.5%
No43.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%
How much we know
Al-Ittihad FC history79 matches
NEOM history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Kickoff5 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Al-Ittihad FC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al-Ittihad FC are rated 34 Elo points higher
Elo 1,638 against 1,603. On rating alone Al-Ittihad FC would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Al-Ittihad FC score more
1.94 goals a game over 79 matches for Al-Ittihad FC, against 1.72 over 61 for NEOM.
-
NEOM concede fewer
Al-Ittihad FC concede 1.34 a game, NEOM 1.10.
-
Al-Ittihad FC games more often go over 2.5 goals
61% of Al-Ittihad FC matches, against 52% for NEOM. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al-Ittihad FC
NEOM
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1637.5
ELO
1603.1
79
ELO · Matches
61
1637.5
Current Team ELO
1603.1
1603.1
Current Opponent ELO
1637.5
34.46
Current ELO Difference
-34.46
0.55
Expected score
0.45
79
History Matches
61
0.07
Residual Mean
0.08
55.95
Overperformance
55.95
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.40
2.40
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals 90
79
Matches
61
1.86
PPG
1.80
55.7%
Win rate
52.5%
19.0%
Draw rate
23.0%
25.3%
Loss rate
24.6%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
60.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
41.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.5%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals 100
35
Matches
32
2.17
PPG
1.91
68.6%
Win rate
56.3%
11.4%
Draw rate
21.9%
20.0%
Loss rate
21.9%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.6%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
31.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
35
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.94
Goals for per game
1.72
86.1%
Scoring rate
85.2%
64.6%
BTTS rate
57.4%
1.91
Goals for per game
1.75
80.0%
Scoring rate
81.3%
48.6%
BTTS rate
46.9%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
79
History Matches
61
1.94
Goals Mean
1.72
1.41
Goals Std
1.43
86.1%
Scored 1+ rate
85.2%
54.4%
Scored 2+ rate
45.9%
32.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.3%
1.91
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.34
Goals against per game
1.10
75.9%
Conceding rate
68.9%
1.06
Goals against per game
0.94
62.9%
Conceding rate
59.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
79
History Matches
61
1.34
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.16
Conceded Std
0.95
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.1%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
0.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
79
History Matches
61
0.90
Result entropy
0.93
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.71
9.96
Stability score
7.05
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
79
Eligible Matches
61
40
Lead Matches
24
82.5%
Lead Win Rate
79.2%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.85
14
Trailing Matches
10
28.6%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
72.96
Rest days
73.01
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
51
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.82
15
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.06
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
11
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.52
0.90
Portability PPG Range
1.32
58.12
Portability Score
49.14
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
79
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO34.46
PPG0.06
GF0.22
GA0.24
PPG0.33
PPG0.27
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches18
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate0.8%
Scored 2+ rate8.5%
Scored 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches18
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.79
History Matches18
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score2.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.45
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score8.97
Rest days-0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.41
Current Team ELO34.46
Current Opponent ELO-34.46
Current ELO Difference68.91
Expected score0.10
History Matches18
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al-Ittihad FC
L
Al-Ittihad FC1–4Al Ain2 Nov · home
Pick: Al-Ittihad FC 44% · missed W
Neftchi1–2Al-Ittihad FC26 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Ittihad FC 44% · hit W
Al-Ittihad FC2–0Al Diriyah23 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ittihad FC 59% · hit W
Al-Ettifaq1–4Al-Ittihad FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Ittihad FC 38% · hit L
Al-Ittihad FC1–2Shabab Al Ahli Dubai13 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ittihad FC 47% · missed NEOM
W
NEOM3–0Al-Duhail SC3 Nov · home
Pick: NEOM 44% · hit W
Al Diriyah1–2NEOM30 Oct · away
Pick: NEOM 48% · hit L
Al-Shabab3–1NEOM27 Oct · away
Pick: NEOM 49% · missed W
NEOM2–0Abha24 Oct · home
Pick: NEOM 62% · hit L
Al-Nassr1–0NEOM20 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Nassr 66% · hit About this match
Al-Ittihad FC and NEOM were due to play in Pro League on Thursday 5 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.