Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh
Al-Fateh
Postponed
Thu 5 Nov
Was due at 17:00 UTC
Al Riyadh
Match result probability Model pick: Al Riyadh win
Al-Fateh win
36.7%
Draw
25.8%
Al Riyadh winPick
37.5%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes59.1%
No40.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.0%
Under 2.542.0%
How much we know
Al-Fateh history59 matches
Al Riyadh history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Kickoff5 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Al Riyadh are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al-Fateh are rated 28 Elo points higher
Elo 1,468 against 1,440. On rating alone Al-Fateh would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Al-Fateh score more
1.34 goals a game over 59 matches for Al-Fateh, against 1.05 over 61 for Al Riyadh.
-
Al-Fateh concede fewer
Al-Fateh concede 1.61 a game, Al Riyadh 1.90.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
53% of Al-Fateh matches, against 52% for Al Riyadh. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al-Fateh
Al Riyadh
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1468.0
ELO
1439.8
59
ELO · Matches
61
1468.0
Current Team ELO
1439.8
1439.8
Current Opponent ELO
1468.0
28.20
Current ELO Difference
-28.20
0.54
Expected score
0.46
59
History Matches
61
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
47.48
Overperformance
45.83
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.00
0.00
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.70
Goals against per game
2.20
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.72
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.99
Overall performance9 signals 90
59
Matches
61
1.24
PPG
0.84
33.9%
Win rate
19.7%
22.0%
Draw rate
24.6%
44.1%
Loss rate
55.7%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
32.2%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
33
1.63
PPG
0.64
48.1%
Win rate
15.2%
18.5%
Draw rate
18.2%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.4%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
27
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.05
76.3%
Scoring rate
72.1%
61.0%
BTTS rate
59.0%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.12
85.2%
Scoring rate
72.7%
63.0%
BTTS rate
63.6%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.67
0.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
59
History Matches
61
1.34
Goals Mean
1.05
1.07
Goals Std
0.84
76.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.1%
40.7%
Scored 2+ rate
27.9%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
4.9%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.90
81.4%
Conceding rate
83.6%
1.41
Goals against per game
2.24
77.8%
Conceding rate
90.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
61
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.35
Conceded Std
1.42
40.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.5%
22.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.8%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
2.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
59
History Matches
61
0.97
Result entropy
0.90
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.58
3.41
Stability score
9.83
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
59
Eligible Matches
61
16
Lead Matches
17
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
35.3%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.47
23
Trailing Matches
26
21.7%
Non-loss rate
19.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
75.05
Rest days
71.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
36
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.87
18
Long Rest History Matches
18
0.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.72
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
0.33
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
2
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.91
Portability PPG Range
0.55
57.03
Portability Score
68.44
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
59
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO28.20
PPG0.40
GF0.29
GA-0.29
PPG-0.33
PPG0.99
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate13.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate4.1%
Scored 2+ rate12.8%
Scored 3+ rate8.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-6.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.41
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate33.5%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate2.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.36
Portability Score-11.41
Rest days3.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.60
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO28.20
Current Opponent ELO-28.20
Current ELO Difference56.41
Expected score0.08
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al-Fateh
L
Al-Hilal Saudi FC2–0Al-Fateh31 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75% · hit L
Al-Fateh1–3Al Shabab22 Oct · home
Pick: Al Shabab 46% · hit L
Al-Fateh2–3Al Khaleej Saihat18 Oct · home
Pick: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% · hit W
Al-Hazm2–3Al-Fateh15 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Hazm 56% · missed D
Al-Fateh0–0Al-Ittihad FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Al-Ittihad FC 60% · missed Al Riyadh
L
Al Riyadh0–6Al-Qadisiyah FC29 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 71% · hit W
Al Riyadh2–1Al Taawon24 Oct · home
Pick: Al Taawon 49% · missed L
Al Diriyah1–0Al Riyadh20 Oct · away
Pick: Al Diriyah 62% · hit D
Al Shabab3–3Al Riyadh25 Aug · away
Pick: Al Shabab 61% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh were due to play in Pro League on Thursday 5 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.