ScoreProb
Pro League United Arab Emirates Round 8 2026

Al Nasr vs Dubai United

Al Nasr Home · Elo 1,530
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dubai United Away · Elo 1,602
Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Nasr win
Al Nasr winPick
48.1%
Draw
22.6%
Dubai United win
29.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.7%
No46.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.4%
Under 2.544.6%

How much we know

Al Nasr history50 matches
Dubai United history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:55 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al Nasr are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dubai United are rated 72 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,602 against 1,530. On rating alone Dubai United would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Dubai United score more

    1.26 goals a game over 50 matches for Al Nasr, against 1.80 over 51 for Dubai United.

  • Defences are close

    Al Nasr concede 1.28 a game, Dubai United 1.20.

  • Dubai United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Al Nasr matches, against 59% for Dubai United. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Nasr
Dubai United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.6
ELO
1601.6
50
ELO · Matches
51
1529.6
Current Team ELO
1601.6
1601.6
Current Opponent ELO
1529.6
-72.05
Current ELO Difference
72.05
0.40
Expected score
0.60
50
History Matches
51
0.04
Residual Mean
0.09
52.65
Overperformance
56.57
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
51
1.42
PPG
1.92
36.0%
Win rate
54.9%
34.0%
Draw rate
27.5%
30.0%
Loss rate
17.6%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.3%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
26.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
1.15
PPG
1.85
25.9%
Win rate
55.6%
37.0%
Draw rate
18.5%
37.0%
Loss rate
25.9%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
96.3%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.80
72.0%
Scoring rate
86.3%
58.0%
BTTS rate
62.7%
1.07
Goals for per game
2.00
63.0%
Scoring rate
88.9%
51.9%
BTTS rate
74.1%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
51
1.26
Goals Mean
1.80
0.98
Goals Std
1.41
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
86.3%
44.0%
Scored 2+ rate
56.9%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
1.07
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.20
76.0%
Conceding rate
68.6%
1.37
Goals against per game
1.52
81.5%
Conceding rate
81.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
51
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.20
0.98
Conceded Std
1.14
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.37
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.7%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.7%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
51
1.00
Result entropy
0.90
1.09
Goal Difference Std
1.73
0.26
Stability score
9.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
51
14
Lead Matches
20
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.93
18
Trailing Matches
9
44.4%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.85
Rest days
76.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.95
28
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.27
70.34
Portability Score
81.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-72.05
PPG-0.50
GF-0.54
GA0.08
PPG0.50
PPG-0.70
PPG0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate25.9%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.93
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.64
Stability score-9.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.12
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-10.90
Rest days1.89
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-72.05
Current Opponent ELO72.05
Current ELO Difference-144.1
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Nasr

W
Al Zawra'a0–1Al Nasr28 Oct · away
Pick: Al Zawra'a 58% · missed
W
Al Nasr2–0Hatta SC17 Oct · home
Pick: Al Nasr 56% · hit
W
Al Nasr4–1Hatta SC8 Oct · home
Pick: Al Nasr 49% · hit
L
Al Ain2–1Al Nasr29 Aug · away
Pick: Al Ain 67% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dubai United

L
Hatta SC1–0Dubai United24 Oct · away
Pick: Dubai United 44% · missed
L
Al-Dhafra5–1Dubai United16 Oct · away
Pick: Dubai United 44% · missed
L
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai2–1Dubai United8 Oct · away
Pick: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Nasr and Dubai United meet in Pro League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:55 UTC. The match is played at Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Al Nasr win 48.1%, draw 22.6%, Dubai United win 29.3%. The pick is Al Nasr win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.4%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.