ScoreProb
Pro League United Arab Emirates Round 8 2026

Ajman vs Baniyas SC

Ajman Home · Elo 1,502
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Baniyas SC Away · Elo 1,447
Ajman Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ajman win
Ajman winPick
50.4%
Draw
21.5%
Baniyas SC win
28.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.6%
No39.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.2%

How much we know

Ajman history44 matches
Baniyas SC history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ajman are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ajman are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,502 against 1,447. On rating alone Ajman would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Ajman score more

    1.32 goals a game over 44 matches for Ajman, against 1.17 over 46 for Baniyas SC.

  • Defences are close

    Ajman concede 1.61 a game, Baniyas SC 1.76.

  • Baniyas SC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Ajman matches, against 59% for Baniyas SC. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ajman
Baniyas SC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1502.0
ELO
1447.3
44
ELO · Matches
46
1502.0
Current Team ELO
1447.3
1447.3
Current Opponent ELO
1502.0
54.72
Current ELO Difference
-54.72
0.58
Expected score
0.42
44
History Matches
46
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.32
Overperformance
46.66
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.40
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
3.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
46
1.23
PPG
1.00
34.1%
Win rate
26.1%
20.5%
Draw rate
21.7%
45.5%
Loss rate
52.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
47.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.7%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
21
1.18
PPG
1.38
31.8%
Win rate
42.9%
22.7%
Draw rate
9.5%
45.5%
Loss rate
47.6%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
22
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.32
Goals for per game
1.17
70.5%
Scoring rate
67.4%
54.5%
BTTS rate
52.2%
1.64
Goals for per game
1.24
81.8%
Scoring rate
71.4%
72.7%
BTTS rate
47.6%
3.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
46
1.32
Goals Mean
1.17
1.28
Goals Std
1.01
70.5%
Scored 1+ rate
67.4%
34.1%
Scored 2+ rate
41.3%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
6.5%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.76
79.5%
Conceding rate
82.6%
1.86
Goals against per game
1.52
90.9%
Conceding rate
76.2%
2.50
Goals against per game
3.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
46
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.76
1.17
Conceded Std
1.24
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.3%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.3%
1.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
46
0.96
Result entropy
0.93
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.65
4.44
Stability score
7.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
46
8
Lead Matches
15
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.69
19
Trailing Matches
19
21.1%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.86
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.06
Rest days
77.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
18
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.81
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
5
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.08
Portability PPG Range
0.12
92.86
Portability Score
89.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO54.72
PPG0.23
GF0.14
GA-0.15
PPG3.00
PPG-0.20
PPG1.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate3.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate9.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.70
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-2.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.06
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate2.5%
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate5.3%
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.04
Portability Score3.20
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.63
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO54.72
Current Opponent ELO-54.72
Current ELO Difference109.4
Expected score0.16
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ajman

L
Al-Jazira1–0Ajman22 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Jazira 57% · hit
L
Ajman1–3Sharjah FC18 Oct · home
Pick: Ajman 38% · missed
L
Al-Jazira3–0Ajman29 Aug · away
Pick: Al-Jazira 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Baniyas SC

L
Baniyas SC0–2Al-Wasl FC16 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Wasl FC 61% · hit
L
Al Wahda FC2–1Baniyas SC30 Aug · away
Pick: Al Wahda FC 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ajman and Baniyas SC meet in Pro League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Ajman Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ajman win 50.4%, draw 21.5%, Baniyas SC win 28.1%. The pick is Ajman win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.8%. Both teams to score: 60.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.