ScoreProb
Division 1 Saudi Arabia Round 11 2026

Al Okhdood vs Al Jabalain

Al Okhdood Home · Elo 1,414
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Jabalain Away · Elo 1,544
Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Najran Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Okhdood win
Al Okhdood winPick
45.8%
Draw
24.9%
Al Jabalain win
29.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.7%
Under 2.546.3%

How much we know

Al Okhdood history54 matches
Al Jabalain history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:05 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al Okhdood are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Jabalain are rated 131 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,544 against 1,414. On rating alone Al Jabalain would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Al Jabalain score far more

    0.80 goals a game over 54 matches for Al Okhdood, against 1.60 over 53 for Al Jabalain.

  • Al Jabalain concede fewer

    Al Okhdood concede 1.87 a game, Al Jabalain 1.17.

  • Al Jabalain games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Al Okhdood matches, against 58% for Al Jabalain. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Okhdood
Al Jabalain
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1413.5
ELO
1544.4
54
ELO · Matches
53
1413.5
Current Team ELO
1544.4
1544.4
Current Opponent ELO
1413.5
-130.9
Current ELO Difference
130.9
0.32
Expected score
0.68
54
History Matches
53
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.04
44.32
Overperformance
52.70
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
0.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
53
0.83
PPG
1.70
22.2%
Win rate
49.1%
16.7%
Draw rate
22.6%
61.1%
Loss rate
28.3%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.5%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
0.96
PPG
1.48
25.9%
Win rate
40.7%
18.5%
Draw rate
25.9%
55.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
53.7%
Scoring rate
83.0%
40.7%
BTTS rate
56.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.19
66.7%
Scoring rate
74.1%
51.9%
BTTS rate
48.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
53
0.80
Goals Mean
1.60
0.89
Goals Std
1.25
53.7%
Scored 1+ rate
83.0%
20.4%
Scored 2+ rate
41.5%
5.6%
Scored 3+ rate
22.6%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.87
Goals against per game
1.17
79.6%
Conceding rate
64.2%
2.11
Goals against per game
1.22
81.5%
Conceding rate
59.3%
0.00
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
53
1.87
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.73
Conceded Std
1.11
51.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.8%
24.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
2.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
46.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
46.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
53
0.85
Result entropy
0.95
2.04
Goal Difference Std
1.71
15.00
Stability score
5.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
53
6
Lead Matches
17
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.90
25
Trailing Matches
15
12.0%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
26.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.30
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.95
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.13
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
38
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
16
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.41
Portability PPG Range
0.18
70.83
Portability Score
84.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-130.9
PPG-0.86
GF-0.81
GA0.70
PPG3.00
PPG-0.52
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate29.3%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.81
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.29
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.43
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.70
Conceded Std0.62
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate16.0%
Conceded 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score9.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-13.84
Rest days1.07
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.37
Current Team ELO-130.9
Current Opponent ELO130.9
Current ELO Difference-261.9
Expected score-0.36
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Okhdood

L
Damac4–3Al Okhdood3 Nov · away
Pick: Damac 40% · hit
L
Al Okhdood1–3Al-Adalah20 Oct · home
Pick: Al Okhdood 47% · missed
D
Al Jandal1–1Al Okhdood14 Oct · away
Pick: Al Okhdood 37% · missed
L
Al Okhdood1–5Al Ula8 Oct · home
Pick: Al Ula 39% · hit
D
Al Saqer0–0Al Okhdood31 Aug · away
Pick: Al Saqer 36% · missed

Al Jabalain

W
Al Jabalain3–0Al Bukayriyah2 Nov · home
Pick: Al Jabalain 39% · hit
W
Al Jabalain1–0Al-Raed28 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Raed 40% · missed
W
Jeddah Club0–1Al Jabalain21 Oct · away
Pick: Jeddah Club 45% · missed
W
Al Saqer1–3Al Jabalain13 Oct · away
Pick: Al Saqer 46% · missed
D
Al Najma1–1Al Jabalain1 Sep · away
Pick: Al Najma 52% · missed

About this match

Al Okhdood and Al Jabalain meet in Division 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:05 UTC. The match is played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Najran. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Al Okhdood win 45.8%, draw 24.9%, Al Jabalain win 29.3%. The pick is Al Okhdood win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.7%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.