ScoreProb
Division 1 Saudi Arabia Round 11 2026

Damac vs Al Anwar

Damac Home · Elo 1,434
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Anwar Away · Elo 1,472
Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Abha Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Damac win
Damac winPick
43.9%
Draw
27.6%
Al Anwar win
28.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%

How much we know

Damac history55 matches
Al Anwar history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Damac are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Anwar are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,472 against 1,434. On rating alone Al Anwar would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Al Anwar score far more

    0.85 goals a game over 55 matches for Damac, against 1.50 over 36 for Al Anwar.

  • Defences are close

    Damac concede 1.49 a game, Al Anwar 1.56.

  • Al Anwar games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Damac matches, against 56% for Al Anwar. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Damac
Al Anwar
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1433.9
ELO
1472.4
55
ELO · Matches
36
1433.9
Current Team ELO
1472.4
1472.4
Current Opponent ELO
1433.9
-38.54
Current ELO Difference
38.54
0.44
Expected score
0.56
55
History Matches
36
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.04
45.69
Overperformance
47.53
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.10
0.80
Goals for per game
1.90
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
36
0.85
PPG
1.17
18.2%
Win rate
27.8%
30.9%
Draw rate
33.3%
50.9%
Loss rate
38.9%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
16.4%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
18
1.04
PPG
0.89
25.9%
Win rate
11.1%
25.9%
Draw rate
55.6%
48.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
14.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
27
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.85
Goals for per game
1.50
61.8%
Scoring rate
83.3%
50.9%
BTTS rate
72.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.06
66.7%
Scoring rate
83.3%
48.1%
BTTS rate
77.8%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
36
0.85
Goals Mean
1.50
0.86
Goals Std
1.24
61.8%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
16.4%
Scored 2+ rate
36.1%
7.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
1.56
78.2%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
74.1%
Conceding rate
83.3%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
36
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.23
Conceded Std
1.01
43.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.8%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
36
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.58
7.47
Stability score
0.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
36
7
Lead Matches
10
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.67
18
Trailing Matches
13
11.1%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.84
Rest days
78.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
33
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
18
Long Rest History Matches
10
0.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.05
Portability PPG Std
—
0.09
Portability PPG Range
—
91.62
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-38.54
PPG-0.31
GF-0.65
GA-0.06
PPG0.00
PPG0.15
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate21.5%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate16.7%
History Matches19
Goals Mean-0.65
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches19
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.61
History Matches19
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score6.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate21.4%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-38.54
Current Opponent ELO38.54
Current ELO Difference-77.09
Expected score-0.11
History Matches19
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Damac

W
Damac4–3Al Okhdood3 Nov · home
Pick: Damac 40% · hit
W
Al Jandal0–2Damac28 Oct · away
Pick: Damac 37% · hit
W
Damac4–1Al Taee19 Oct · home
Pick: Damac 52% · hit
L
Al Najma3–0Damac12 Oct · away
Pick: Al Najma 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Anwar

W
Al Orubah0–1Al Anwar2 Nov · away
Pick: Al Orubah 48% · missed
D
Al Anwar1–1Al Wehda Club21 Oct · home
Pick: Al Anwar 38% · missed
D
Al-Adalah1–1Al Anwar12 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Adalah 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Damac and Al Anwar meet in Division 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Abha. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Damac win 43.9%, draw 27.6%, Al Anwar win 28.5%. The pick is Damac win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.2%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.