ScoreProb
Division 1 Saudi Arabia Round 11 2026

Al Wehda Club vs Al Jeel

Al Wehda Club Home · Elo 1,448
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Jeel Away · Elo 1,535
King Abdul Aziz Stadium, Mecca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Wehda Club win
Al Wehda Club winPick
63.2%
Draw
16.5%
Al Jeel win
20.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%

How much we know

Al Wehda Club history55 matches
Al Jeel history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:35 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Al Wehda Club are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Jeel are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,448. On rating alone Al Jeel would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.31 goals a game over 55 matches for Al Wehda Club, against 1.40 over 15 for Al Jeel.

  • Al Jeel concede fewer

    Al Wehda Club concede 1.65 a game, Al Jeel 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Al Wehda Club matches, against 53% for Al Jeel. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Wehda Club
Al Jeel
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.8
ELO
1535.1
55
ELO · Matches
15
1447.8
Current Team ELO
1535.1
1535.1
Current Opponent ELO
1447.8
-87.33
Current ELO Difference
87.33
0.38
Expected score
0.62
55
History Matches
15
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.12
46.47
Overperformance
55.22
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
15
1.15
PPG
1.93
30.9%
Win rate
60.0%
21.8%
Draw rate
13.3%
47.3%
Loss rate
26.7%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
7
1.22
PPG
2.29
29.6%
Win rate
71.4%
33.3%
Draw rate
14.3%
37.0%
Loss rate
14.3%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
48.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.73
27
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.40
76.4%
Scoring rate
73.3%
63.6%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.71
81.5%
Scoring rate
85.7%
74.1%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
15
1.31
Goals Mean
1.40
1.02
Goals Std
1.02
76.4%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
53.3%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
1.27
85.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.14
92.6%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
15
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.25
Conceded Std
1.00
47.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
7.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
14.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
7.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
14.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
15
0.96
Result entropy
0.84
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.20
4.49
Stability score
15.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
12
13
Lead Matches
3
61.5%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
1.00
17
Trailing Matches
1
11.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.95
Rest days
79.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
37
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.38
16
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
6
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.00
Portability PPG Std
—
0.00
Portability PPG Range
—
100.0
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-87.33
PPG-0.79
GF-0.09
GA0.39
PPG1.00
PPG-1.06
PPG0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches40
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches40
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches40
Conceded Mean0.39
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate11.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches40
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.60
Stability score-11.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.65
Eligible Matches43
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.38
Lead Points Retention-0.31
Trailing Matches16
Non-loss rate11.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches43
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches29
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.27
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO-87.33
Current Opponent ELO87.33
Current ELO Difference-174.7
Expected score-0.25
History Matches40
Residual Mean-0.17
Overperformance-8.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Wehda Club

W
Al-Raed0–1Al Wehda Club3 Nov · away
Pick: Al-Raed 54% · missed
W
Al Wehda Club2–1Al Saqer27 Oct · home
Pick: Al Wehda Club 44% · hit
D
Al Anwar1–1Al Wehda Club21 Oct · away
Pick: Al Anwar 38% · missed
W
Al Wehda Club6–1Al Taee12 Oct · home
Pick: Al Wehda Club 54% · hit
D
Al Zulfi0–0Al Wehda Club26 Aug · away
Pick: Al Zulfi 52% · missed

Al Jeel

L
Al Jeel0–1Al Najma2 Nov · home
Pick: Al Najma 46% · hit
W
Al-Adalah0–1Al Jeel27 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Adalah 64% · missed
D
Al Jeel0–0Jeddah Club1 Sep · home
Pick: Jeddah Club 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Wehda Club and Al Jeel meet in Division 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:35 UTC. The match is played at King Abdul Aziz Stadium, Mecca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Al Wehda Club win 63.2%, draw 16.5%, Al Jeel win 20.2%. The pick is Al Wehda Club win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.0%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.