Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Postponed
Thu 5 Nov
Was due at 17:00 UTC
Al-Fayha
Match result probability Model pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC win
Al-Qadisiyah FC winPick
71.7%
Draw
17.6%
Al-Fayha win
10.7%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes50.1%
No49.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%
How much we know
Al-Qadisiyah FC history63 matches
Al-Fayha history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Kickoff5 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.7%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.
Why Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al-Qadisiyah FC are rated 205 Elo points higher
Elo 1,681 against 1,476. On rating alone Al-Qadisiyah FC would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.
-
Al-Qadisiyah FC score far more
2.13 goals a game over 63 matches for Al-Qadisiyah FC, against 0.98 over 59 for Al-Fayha.
-
Al-Qadisiyah FC concede fewer
Al-Qadisiyah FC concede 1.11 a game, Al-Fayha 1.51.
-
Al-Qadisiyah FC games more often go over 2.5 goals
62% of Al-Qadisiyah FC matches, against 46% for Al-Fayha. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Fayha
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1680.6
ELO
1475.6
63
ELO · Matches
59
1680.6
Current Team ELO
1475.6
1475.6
Current Opponent ELO
1680.6
205.0
Current ELO Difference
-205.0
0.77
Expected score
0.23
63
History Matches
59
0.14
Residual Mean
-0.03
60.72
Overperformance
47.74
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
0.80
2.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.90
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.97
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.47
Overall performance9 signals 90
63
Matches
59
2.06
PPG
1.10
61.9%
Win rate
27.1%
20.6%
Draw rate
28.8%
17.5%
Loss rate
44.1%
84.1%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
49.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.3%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
33
2.29
PPG
0.85
67.7%
Win rate
21.2%
25.8%
Draw rate
21.2%
6.5%
Loss rate
57.6%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
45.2%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
31
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.13
Goals for per game
0.98
90.5%
Scoring rate
55.9%
65.1%
BTTS rate
40.7%
2.13
Goals for per game
0.88
93.5%
Scoring rate
48.5%
61.3%
BTTS rate
36.4%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
59
2.13
Goals Mean
0.98
1.37
Goals Std
1.13
90.5%
Scored 1+ rate
55.9%
60.3%
Scored 2+ rate
28.8%
38.1%
Scored 3+ rate
8.5%
2.13
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.51
73.0%
Conceding rate
69.5%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.88
64.5%
Conceding rate
75.8%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
59
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.01
Conceded Std
1.51
25.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.1%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
44.1%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
6.5%
Failed-to-score rate
51.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
44.1%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
6.5%
Failed-to-score rate
51.5%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
63
History Matches
59
0.84
Result entropy
0.98
1.84
Goal Difference Std
2.11
15.60
Stability score
2.28
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
63
Eligible Matches
59
26
Lead Matches
13
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.82
10
Trailing Matches
26
30.0%
Non-loss rate
19.2%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
3.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
1.21
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.01
Rest days
72.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
38
Normal Rest History Matches
33
2.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
8
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.44
Portability PPG Range
0.83
73.18
Portability Score
56.70
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
63
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO205.0
PPG0.96
GF1.14
GA-0.40
PPG1.50
PPG1.44
PPG0.80
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.45
History Matches4
Goals Mean1.14
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate34.5%
Scored 2+ rate31.5%
Scored 3+ rate29.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.50
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-1.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.48
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score13.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.57
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate7.7%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-16
Non-loss rate10.8%
Trailing Win Rate16.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score16.48
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.92
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.96
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.78
Current Team ELO205.0
Current Opponent ELO-205.0
Current ELO Difference410.1
Expected score0.53
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance12.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al-Qadisiyah FC
W
Al-Gharafa0–5Al-Qadisiyah FC2 Nov · away
Pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 41% · hit W
Al Riyadh0–6Al-Qadisiyah FC29 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 71% · hit D
Al-Qadisiyah FC1–1Al Sadd26 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 46% · missed L
Al-Qadisiyah FC2–3Al-Hilal Saudi FC23 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% · hit W
Al Taawon0–1Al-Qadisiyah FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% · hit Al-Fayha
W
Al-Fayha4–1Al-Faisaly FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Fayha 49% · hit D
Al-Hazm2–2Al-Fayha22 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Hazm 46% · missed L
Al-Fayha2–3Al-Ahli Jeddah19 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% · hit L
Al Khaleej Saihat2–0Al-Fayha15 Oct · away
Pick: Al Khaleej Saihat 47% · hit D
Al Taawon0–0Al-Fayha25 Aug · away
Pick: Al Taawon 52% · missed About this match
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha were due to play in Pro League on Thursday 5 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.