ScoreProb
Division 2 Saudi Arabia Round 6 2026

Al Qalah vs Afif

Al Qalah Home · Elo 1,476
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Afif Away · Elo 1,457
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Qalah win
Al Qalah winPick
39.3%
Draw
30.1%
Afif win
30.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%

How much we know

Al Qalah history13 matches
Afif history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Al Qalah are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,476 against 1,457. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Afif score more

    0.92 goals a game over 13 matches for Al Qalah, against 1.08 over 13 for Afif.

  • Al Qalah concede fewer

    Al Qalah concede 1.31 a game, Afif 1.69.

  • Afif games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Al Qalah matches, against 69% for Afif. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Qalah
Afif
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1475.7
ELO
1456.7
13
ELO · Matches
13
1475.7
Current Team ELO
1456.7
1456.7
Current Opponent ELO
1475.7
19.06
Current ELO Difference
-19.06
0.53
Expected score
0.47
13
History Matches
13
-0.10
Residual Mean
-0.17
46.06
Overperformance
43.18
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
13
Matches
13
1.00
PPG
0.85
23.1%
Win rate
23.1%
30.8%
Draw rate
15.4%
46.2%
Loss rate
61.5%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
7.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
7
0.83
PPG
0.71
16.7%
Win rate
14.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
50.0%
Loss rate
57.1%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
0.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
6
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.92
Goals for per game
1.08
69.2%
Scoring rate
76.9%
53.8%
BTTS rate
69.2%
0.83
Goals for per game
0.71
66.7%
Scoring rate
57.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
13
History Matches
13
0.92
Goals Mean
1.08
0.73
Goals Std
0.83
69.2%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
23.1%
Scored 2+ rate
23.1%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.7%
0.83
Venue Goals Mean
0.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.31
Goals against per game
1.69
84.6%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.29
83.3%
Conceding rate
57.1%
13
History Matches
13
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.69
0.82
Conceded Std
1.20
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.5%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.1%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
13
History Matches
13
0.96
Result entropy
0.84
1.27
Goal Difference Std
1.50
3.71
Stability score
15.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
10
Eligible Matches
10
2
Lead Matches
2
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.33
Lead Points Retention
1.00
4
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
10
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
217.0
Rest days
210.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
10
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.89
2
Long Rest History Matches
3
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
13
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO19.06
PPG0.15
GF-0.15
GA-0.38
PPG0.12
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches0
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-12.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-1.00
Lead Points Retention-0.67
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO19.06
Current Opponent ELO-19.06
Current ELO Difference38.11
Expected score0.05
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance2.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Qalah

D
Al Rayan1–1Al Qalah2 Nov · away
Pick: Al Rayan 42% · missed
W
Al Qalah3–0Al Baten27 Oct · home
Pick: Al Baten 39% · missed
W
Al Qalah3–1Al Qwarah23 Oct · home
Pick: Al Qalah 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Afif

L
Afif0–2Al Nairyah2 Nov · home
Pick: Al Nairyah 42% · hit
L
Afif0–1Al-Ain28 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ain 47% · hit
L
Baish2–1Afif24 Oct · away
Pick: Baish 38% · hit
D
Afif1–1Al Baten16 Oct · home
Pick: Al Baten 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Qalah and Afif meet in Division 2 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Al Qalah win 39.3%, draw 30.1%, Afif win 30.6%. The pick is Al Qalah win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.