ScoreProb
Division 2 Saudi Arabia Round 6 2026

Mudhar Club vs Al Sahel

Mudhar Club Home · Elo 1,515
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Sahel Away · Elo 1,548
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Sahel win
Mudhar Club win
35.2%
Draw
27.0%
Al Sahel winPick
37.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.3%
Under 2.545.7%

How much we know

Mudhar Club history12 matches
Al Sahel history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:55 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Al Sahel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Sahel are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,548 against 1,515. On rating alone Al Sahel would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Al Sahel score more

    1.50 goals a game over 12 matches for Mudhar Club, against 2.15 over 13 for Al Sahel.

  • Al Sahel concede fewer

    Mudhar Club concede 1.17 a game, Al Sahel 1.00.

  • Al Sahel games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Mudhar Club matches, against 62% for Al Sahel. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mudhar Club
Al Sahel
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.6
ELO
1548.1
12
ELO · Matches
13
1514.6
Current Team ELO
1548.1
1548.1
Current Opponent ELO
1514.6
-33.50
Current ELO Difference
33.50
0.45
Expected score
0.55
12
History Matches
13
0.09
Residual Mean
0.19
53.36
Overperformance
57.55
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.00
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
12
Matches
13
1.67
PPG
2.08
41.7%
Win rate
61.5%
41.7%
Draw rate
23.1%
16.7%
Loss rate
15.4%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
6
1.75
PPG
2.17
37.5%
Win rate
66.7%
62.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
8
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.50
Goals for per game
2.15
91.7%
Scoring rate
84.6%
66.7%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
12
History Matches
13
1.50
Goals Mean
2.15
0.76
Goals Std
1.46
91.7%
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
69.2%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
30.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
2.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.17
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
69.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.83
75.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
12
History Matches
13
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.90
Conceded Std
0.88
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.1%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
12
History Matches
13
0.94
Result entropy
0.84
1.11
Goal Difference Std
1.92
6.41
Stability score
15.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
9
Eligible Matches
10
4
Lead Matches
5
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.87
2
Trailing Matches
3
100.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
9
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
218.0
Rest days
211.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
6
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.25
5
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
12
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-33.50
PPG-0.41
GF-0.65
GA0.17
PPG-0.42
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.65
Goals Std-0.70
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.54
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate0.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.81
Stability score-9.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.80
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate66.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO-33.50
Current Opponent ELO33.50
Current ELO Difference-67.01
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-4.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mudhar Club

D
Mudhar Club2–2Baish3 Nov · home
Pick: Mudhar Club 57% · missed
L
Al-Wajj2–1Mudhar Club28 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Wajj 36% · hit
D
Mudhar Club2–2Al Nairyah24 Oct · home
Pick: Mudhar Club 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Sahel

W
Al Sahel3–2Al Qwarah2 Nov · home
Pick: Al Sahel 60% · hit
W
Al Gottah0–2Al Sahel28 Oct · away
Pick: Al Sahel 49% · hit
D
Al-Wajj2–2Al Sahel16 Oct · away
Pick: Al Sahel 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mudhar Club and Al Sahel meet in Division 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:55 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mudhar Club win 35.2%, draw 27.0%, Al Sahel win 37.7%. The pick is Al Sahel win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.3%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.