ScoreProb
Division 2 Saudi Arabia Round 6 2026

Al Baten vs Al-Ain

Al Baten Home · Elo 1,381
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al-Ain Away · Elo 1,519
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Baten win
Al Baten winPick
56.7%
Draw
16.5%
Al-Ain win
26.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.6%
No39.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%

How much we know

Al Baten history52 matches
Al-Ain history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:10 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Al Baten are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al-Ain are rated 139 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,381. On rating alone Al-Ain would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Al-Ain score more

    1.17 goals a game over 52 matches for Al Baten, against 1.59 over 29 for Al-Ain.

  • Al-Ain concede fewer

    Al Baten concede 1.94 a game, Al-Ain 1.62.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Al Baten matches, against 59% for Al-Ain. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Baten
Al-Ain
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1380.5
ELO
1519.1
52
ELO · Matches
29
1380.5
Current Team ELO
1519.1
1519.1
Current Opponent ELO
1380.5
-138.6
Current ELO Difference
138.6
0.31
Expected score
0.69
52
History Matches
29
-0.11
Residual Mean
0.05
42.17
Overperformance
52.93
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
29
0.81
PPG
1.45
19.2%
Win rate
37.9%
23.1%
Draw rate
31.0%
57.7%
Loss rate
31.0%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
65.4%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
40.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
12
1.00
PPG
1.00
25.9%
Win rate
16.7%
22.2%
Draw rate
50.0%
51.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
70.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
27
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.17
Goals for per game
1.59
73.1%
Scoring rate
82.8%
71.2%
BTTS rate
65.5%
1.37
Goals for per game
1.58
74.1%
Scoring rate
83.3%
74.1%
BTTS rate
83.3%
52
History Matches
29
1.17
Goals Mean
1.59
0.99
Goals Std
1.19
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
82.8%
30.8%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
11.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.7%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.58
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.94
Goals against per game
1.62
92.3%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.78
Goals against per game
2.08
88.9%
Conceding rate
91.7%
52
History Matches
29
1.94
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.38
Conceded Std
1.30
55.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.8%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.6%
1.78
Venue Conceded Mean
2.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
7.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
7.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
7.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
29
0.89
Result entropy
1.00
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.61
11.45
Stability score
0.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
26
15
Lead Matches
8
46.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.56
Lead Points Retention
0.83
15
Trailing Matches
8
6.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
1.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
176.8
Rest days
204.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
37
Normal Rest History Matches
19
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
14
Long Rest History Matches
9
0.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.54
Portability PPG Range
1.07
64.92
Portability Score
48.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-138.6
PPG-0.64
GF-0.41
GA0.32
PPG0.00
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate9.7%
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Failed-to-score rate9.3%
History Matches23
Goals Mean-0.41
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches23
Conceded Mean0.32
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches23
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score11.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.76
Eligible Matches26
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.28
Lead Points Retention-0.28
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches26
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.53
Portability Score16.53
Rest days-28.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.02
Current Team ELO-138.6
Current Opponent ELO138.6
Current ELO Difference-277.2
Expected score-0.38
History Matches23
Residual Mean-0.16
Overperformance-10.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Baten

D
Al Taraji1–1Al Baten2 Nov · away
Pick: Al Baten 50% · missed
L
Al Qalah3–0Al Baten27 Oct · away
Pick: Al Baten 39% · missed
D
Afif1–1Al Baten16 Oct · away
Pick: Al Baten 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al-Ain

W
Al-Ain3–1Arar2 Nov · home
Pick: Al-Ain 62% · hit
W
Afif0–1Al-Ain28 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Ain 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Baten and Al-Ain meet in Division 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:10 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Al Baten win 56.7%, draw 16.5%, Al-Ain win 26.7%. The pick is Al Baten win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.3%. Both teams to score: 60.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.