ScoreProb
Division 2 Saudi Arabia Round 6 2026

Al Rawdhah vs Al Shoalah

Al Rawdhah Home · Elo 1,459
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Shoalah Away · Elo 1,498
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Shoalah win
Al Rawdhah win
31.2%
Draw
23.3%
Al Shoalah winPick
45.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.0%
No42.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%

How much we know

Al Rawdhah history13 matches
Al Shoalah history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:55 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al Shoalah are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Shoalah are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,498 against 1,459. On rating alone Al Shoalah would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Al Shoalah score far more

    1.08 goals a game over 13 matches for Al Rawdhah, against 1.92 over 13 for Al Shoalah.

  • Al Shoalah concede fewer

    Al Rawdhah concede 2.15 a game, Al Shoalah 1.85.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    77% of Al Rawdhah matches, against 69% for Al Shoalah. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Rawdhah
Al Shoalah
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1458.6
ELO
1497.8
13
ELO · Matches
13
1458.6
Current Team ELO
1497.8
1497.8
Current Opponent ELO
1458.6
-39.22
Current ELO Difference
39.22
0.44
Expected score
0.56
13
History Matches
13
-0.18
Residual Mean
-0.01
42.91
Overperformance
49.42
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
2.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.30
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
13
Matches
13
0.85
PPG
1.31
23.1%
Win rate
38.5%
15.4%
Draw rate
15.4%
61.5%
Loss rate
46.2%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
5
Matches
7
1.00
PPG
1.14
20.0%
Win rate
28.6%
40.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
40.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
5
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.08
Goals for per game
1.92
84.6%
Scoring rate
76.9%
76.9%
BTTS rate
76.9%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.57
80.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
80.0%
BTTS rate
71.4%
13
History Matches
13
1.08
Goals Mean
1.92
0.62
Goals Std
1.69
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
23.1%
Scored 2+ rate
53.8%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
30.8%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.15
Goals against per game
1.85
84.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.71
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
13
History Matches
13
2.15
Conceded Mean
1.85
1.46
Conceded Std
1.10
61.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.2%
46.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.1%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
13
History Matches
13
0.84
Result entropy
0.92
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.54
15.79
Stability score
7.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
10
Eligible Matches
10
2
Lead Matches
4
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.50
Lead Points Retention
0.75
4
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
10
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
1.20
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.40
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
212.0
Rest days
212.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
8
0.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
3
Long Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
13
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-39.22
PPG-0.46
GF-0.85
GA0.31
PPG-0.14
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.85
Goals Std-1.07
Scored 1+ rate7.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.31
Venue Goals Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.08
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.36
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Conceded 2+ rate15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate23.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score7.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.30
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.67
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.75
Current Team ELO-39.22
Current Opponent ELO39.22
Current ELO Difference-78.43
Expected score-0.11
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.17
Overperformance-6.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Rawdhah

W
Al Entesar1–2Al Rawdhah3 Nov · away
Pick: Al Entesar 40% · missed
D
Al Qous0–0Al Rawdhah24 Oct · away
Pick: Al Rawdhah 41% · missed
W
Al-Washm0–2Al Rawdhah17 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Washm 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Shoalah

D
Al Najoom0–0Al Shoalah3 Nov · away
Pick: Al Najoom 42% · missed
L
Al Shoalah3–4Al-Washm29 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Washm 41% · hit
L
Al Sharq2–0Al Shoalah24 Oct · away
Pick: Al Sharq 42% · hit
W
Al Shoalah3–1Al Loa17 Oct · home
Pick: Al Loa 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Rawdhah and Al Shoalah meet in Division 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:55 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Al Rawdhah win 31.2%, draw 23.3%, Al Shoalah win 45.4%. The pick is Al Shoalah win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.6%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.