ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Two World Round 4 2026

Al Taawon vs Al Faisaly

Al Taawon Home · Elo 1,517
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Faisaly Away · Elo 1,630
Al Taawon Arena, Buraidah Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Taawon win
Al Taawon winPick
41.2%
Draw
29.3%
Al Faisaly win
29.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.0%
Under 2.549.0%

How much we know

Al Taawon history64 matches
Al Faisaly history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 18:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al Taawon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Faisaly are rated 113 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,630 against 1,517. On rating alone Al Faisaly would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Al Faisaly score more

    1.48 goals a game over 64 matches for Al Taawon, against 1.73 over 51 for Al Faisaly.

  • Al Faisaly concede fewer

    Al Taawon concede 1.27 a game, Al Faisaly 0.73.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Al Taawon matches, against 47% for Al Faisaly. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Taawon
Al Faisaly
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.5
ELO
1629.6
64
ELO · Matches
51
1516.5
Current Team ELO
1629.6
1629.6
Current Opponent ELO
1516.5
-113.1
Current ELO Difference
113.1
0.34
Expected score
0.66
64
History Matches
51
0.01
Residual Mean
0.13
50.76
Overperformance
59.21
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
51
1.39
PPG
2.12
35.9%
Win rate
62.7%
31.3%
Draw rate
23.5%
32.8%
Loss rate
13.7%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
29.7%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
24
1.42
PPG
1.92
35.5%
Win rate
54.2%
35.5%
Draw rate
29.2%
29.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
31
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.48
Goals for per game
1.73
73.4%
Scoring rate
76.5%
56.3%
BTTS rate
47.1%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.58
74.2%
Scoring rate
70.8%
54.8%
BTTS rate
41.7%
64
History Matches
51
1.48
Goals Mean
1.73
1.39
Goals Std
1.43
73.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.5%
40.6%
Scored 2+ rate
51.0%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
29.4%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.58
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.27
Goals against per game
0.73
75.0%
Conceding rate
60.8%
1.29
Goals against per game
0.63
71.0%
Conceding rate
58.3%
64
History Matches
51
1.27
Conceded Mean
0.73
1.00
Conceded Std
0.66
40.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
11.8%
7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
0.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
51
1.00
Result entropy
0.82
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.48
0.15
Stability score
17.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
51
19
Lead Matches
25
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
92.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.95
18
Trailing Matches
9
38.9%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
71.09
Rest days
176.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
44
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.09
13
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.89
Portability PPG Range
1.17
61.21
Portability Score
54.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-113.1
PPG-0.73
GF-0.24
GA0.54
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches13
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches13
Conceded Mean0.54
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate28.9%
Conceded 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches13
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score-17.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.69
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.27
Portability Score6.61
Rest days-105.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Current Team ELO-113.1
Current Opponent ELO113.1
Current ELO Difference-226.1
Expected score-0.31
History Matches13
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Taawon

D
Al Taawon1–1Al-Ettifaq31 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ettifaq 42% · missed
W
Al Faisaly0–2Al Taawon28 Oct · away
Pick: Al Faisaly 39% · missed
L
Al Riyadh2–1Al Taawon24 Oct · away
Pick: Al Taawon 49% · missed
L
Al Taawon0–1Al-Qadisiyah FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% · hit
D
Al Diriyah1–1Al Taawon17 Oct · away
Pick: Al Diriyah 44% · missed

Al Faisaly

L
Al Faisaly0–1Al Hussein31 Oct · home
Pick: Al Hussein 43% · hit
L
Al Faisaly0–2Al Taawon28 Oct · home
Pick: Al Faisaly 39% · missed
D
Al Jazeera2–2Al Faisaly23 Oct · away
Pick: Al Faisaly 47% · missed
W
Al Faisaly4–1Al Ramtha17 Oct · home
Pick: Al Faisaly 53% · hit
W
Al Faisaly2–0Al-Nahda14 Oct · home
Pick: Al Faisaly 40% · hit

About this match

Al Taawon and Al Faisaly meet in AFC Champions League Two on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 18:15 UTC. The match is played at Al Taawon Arena, Buraidah. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Al Taawon win 41.2%, draw 29.3%, Al Faisaly win 29.5%. The pick is Al Taawon win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.0%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.