ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Two World Round 4 2026

Arkadag vs Gol Gohar

Arkadag Home · Elo 1,705
Full time
1–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 13:45 UTC
Gol Gohar Away · Elo 1,561
Arkadag Stadium Referee: Razlan Joffri bin Ali, Malaysia Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Arkadag win
Arkadag winPick Result
49.4%
Draw
22.1%
Gol Gohar win
28.4%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

2 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickArkadag win · 49.4%
What happenedArkadag win · we gave it 49.4%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 50.8%
What happenedUnder · 1 goal
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 55.4%
What happenedNo · 1–0
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: Arkadag win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

49%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 2.0
on average
A pick at 49% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

26'
Yellow cardM. Masoumi
Yellow cardG. Annagulyyev
36'
67'
SubstitutionL. Ben Hassine off · M. Bordbar on
67'
SubstitutionA. Jafari off · P. Ghazipour on
SubstitutionD. Meredov off · B. Akmammedov on
70'
SubstitutionY. Gurbanov off · S. Tirkisov on
70'
72'
SubstitutionO. Alishah off · M. Abbasi on
GoalA. Atayew · assist S. Tirkisov
77'
83'
SubstitutionM. Najjarian off · M. Kor on
83'
SubstitutionA. Alizadeh off · B. Alipour on
SubstitutionR. Myratberdiyev off · S. Hydyrow on
83'
SubstitutionR. Khozhaev off · V. Ballakov on
83'
SubstitutionS. Tirkisov off · M. Dinyiew on
90+6'

Lineups

Arkadag 5-4-1 · Gol Gohar 5-3-2

Substitutes · Arkadag

  • 16Seyran Ashirow
  • 1Rustem Ahallyyev
  • 25Ilyas Charyyev
  • 14Şanazar Tirkişow
  • 23Berdimyrat Rejebow
  • 19Begench Akmammedov
  • 13Welmyrat Ballakov
  • 8Yhlas Saparmammedov
  • 6Bayram Atayev
  • 70Meilis Diniev
  • 77Samämmet Hydyrow
  • 11Didar Durdyyev

Substitutes · Gol Gohar

  • 31Mohammad Ali Shakiba
  • 97Mohammad Akhbari
  • 19Pedram Ghazipour
  • 17Amir Mohammad Badavar
  • 5Milad Kor
  • 16Mohammadreza Bordbar
  • 22Benyamin Alipour
  • 20Mohammadreza Abbasi
  • 30Amirreza Valipour
  • 70Ali Asghar Sheikholeslami

Match stats

Arkadag left, Gol Gohar right

Possession 36% 64%
Shots 13 7
Shots on target 3 1
Corners 8 4
Fouls 11 9
Yellow cards 1 1
Saves 1 2
Pass accuracy 71% 83%

Both teams to score

Yes44.6%
No55.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.8%
Under 2.549.2%

How much we know

Arkadag history55 matches
Gol Gohar history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
  4. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 13:45 UTC
  5. Full time: 1–0Two of our three picks hit
  6. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Arkadag are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arkadag are rated 144 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,705 against 1,561. On rating alone Arkadag would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Arkadag score far more

    2.73 goals a game over 55 matches for Arkadag, against 0.98 over 44 for Gol Gohar.

  • Arkadag concede fewer

    Arkadag concede 0.62 a game, Gol Gohar 0.77.

  • Arkadag games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Arkadag matches, against 25% for Gol Gohar. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arkadag
Gol Gohar
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1705.4
ELO
1561.2
55
ELO · Matches
44
1705.4
Current Team ELO
1561.2
1561.2
Current Opponent ELO
1705.4
144.2
Current ELO Difference
-144.2
0.70
Expected score
0.30
55
History Matches
44
0.17
Residual Mean
0.08
62.82
Overperformance
55.32
0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.60
4.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
0.20
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
3.00
PPG
1.50
4.60
Goals for per game
1.10
0.60
Goals against per game
1.10
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
4.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.74
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
44
2.36
PPG
1.66
72.7%
Win rate
45.5%
18.2%
Draw rate
29.5%
9.1%
Loss rate
25.0%
76.4%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
11.4%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
20
2.40
PPG
1.50
72.0%
Win rate
40.0%
24.0%
Draw rate
30.0%
4.0%
Loss rate
30.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.0%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
25
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.73
Goals for per game
0.98
83.6%
Scoring rate
65.9%
40.0%
BTTS rate
31.8%
2.68
Goals for per game
0.95
84.0%
Scoring rate
70.0%
36.0%
BTTS rate
45.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
0.0%
BTTS rate
—
55
History Matches
44
2.73
Goals Mean
0.98
2.22
Goals Std
0.89
83.6%
Scored 1+ rate
65.9%
63.6%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
47.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.8%
2.68
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.62
Goals against per game
0.77
49.1%
Conceding rate
47.7%
0.48
Goals against per game
0.95
40.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
—
0.0%
Conceding rate
—
55
History Matches
44
0.62
Conceded Mean
0.77
0.73
Conceded Std
1.17
10.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
13.6%
1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.8%
0.48
Venue Conceded Mean
0.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.9%
Clean-sheet rate
52.3%
16.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
50.9%
Clean-sheet rate
52.3%
16.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
50.9%
Clean-sheet rate
52.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
44
0.69
Result entropy
0.97
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.53
30.86
Stability score
3.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
36
Eligible Matches
44
20
Lead Matches
17
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.88
5
Trailing Matches
5
40.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
36
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
1.17
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.23
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.03
Rest days
71.89
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
26
Normal Rest History Matches
24
2.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
24
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
3.00
PPG
—
100.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
3.00
Current Competition PPG
—
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.78
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.93
Portability PPG Range
1.00
38.96
Portability Score
57.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO144.2
PPG0.70
GF1.75
GA-0.15
PPG0.90
PPG1.40
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches11
Goals Mean1.75
Goals Std1.33
Scored 1+ rate17.7%
Scored 2+ rate38.6%
Scored 3+ rate40.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean3.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.70
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.44
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.91
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.28
Goal Difference Std0.68
Stability score27.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate7.6%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate40.0%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.41
Portability PPG Range0.93
Portability Score-18.31
Rest days2.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.07
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO144.2
Current Opponent ELO-144.2
Current ELO Difference288.3
Expected score0.39
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arkadag

D
Gol Gohar0–0Arkadag28 Oct · away
Pick: Arkadag 38% · missed
L
Al-Jazira2–1Arkadag14 Oct · away
Pick: Arkadag 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gol Gohar

D
Gol Gohar0–0Arkadag28 Oct · home
Pick: Arkadag 38% · missed
L
Gol Gohar0–1Kheybar Khorramabad23 Oct · home
Pick: Gol Gohar 53% · missed
L
Esteghlal FC1–0Gol Gohar19 Oct · away
Pick: Esteghlal FC 53% · hit
L
Muharraq2–0Gol Gohar14 Oct · away
Pick: Muharraq 53% · hit
W
Gol Gohar3–0Esteghlal Khuzestan8 Oct · home
Pick: Gol Gohar 69% · hit

Match report

Arkadag and Gol Gohar finished 1–0 in AFC Champions League Two on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Arkadag win 49.4%, draw 22.1%, Gol Gohar win 28.4%. Two of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.