ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Two World Round 4 2026

Al Wahda FC vs Khalidiya

Al Wahda FC Home · Elo 1,541
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Khalidiya Away · Elo 1,641
Al Nahyan Stadium, Abu Dhabi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Wahda FC win
Al Wahda FC winPick
41.1%
Draw
27.5%
Khalidiya win
31.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Lineups

Al Wahda FC 4-4-2 · Khalidiya 4-2-3-1

Substitutes · Al Wahda FC

  • 26Hazaa Ammar
  • 40Abdullrahman Al Amer
  • 35Amanallah Mjahed
  • 32Guga
  • 30Favour Inyeka Ogbu Ogbu
  • 94Brahima Diarra
  • 11Facundo Kruspzky
  • 25Jadsom
  • 80Abdullah Abdulqadeer
  • 8Adam Gnezda Čerin
  • 38Arnau Pradas
  • 70Omar Khribin

Substitutes · Khalidiya

  • 1Mohammed Abdulhakeem
  • 41Ricardo Silva
  • 5Seydina Lahi Dabo
  • 17Hazaa Ali
  • 15Rachid Boumessous
  • 28Patrick Maswanganyi
  • 66Fabrice Onana
  • 11Othman Al-Haj
  • 7Nizar El Otmani
  • 13Mohamed Al Romaihi

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.3%
Under 2.545.7%

How much we know

Al Wahda FC history58 matches
Khalidiya history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
  4. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  5. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  6. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al Wahda FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Khalidiya are rated 100 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,641 against 1,541. On rating alone Khalidiya would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Khalidiya score more

    1.59 goals a game over 58 matches for Al Wahda FC, against 2.02 over 53 for Khalidiya.

  • Defences are close

    Al Wahda FC concede 1.03 a game, Khalidiya 0.98.

  • Khalidiya games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Al Wahda FC matches, against 62% for Khalidiya. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Wahda FC
Khalidiya
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.3
ELO
1641.0
58
ELO · Matches
53
1541.3
Current Team ELO
1641.0
1641.0
Current Opponent ELO
1541.3
-99.73
Current ELO Difference
99.73
0.36
Expected score
0.64
58
History Matches
53
0.03
Residual Mean
0.14
52.21
Overperformance
60.17
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.40
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
2.50
1.10
Goals for per game
2.30
1.30
Goals against per game
0.90
10.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
0.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
53
1.62
PPG
2.08
41.4%
Win rate
64.2%
37.9%
Draw rate
15.1%
20.7%
Loss rate
20.8%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.3%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.2%
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
24
1.75
PPG
2.13
46.4%
Win rate
62.5%
35.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
17.9%
Loss rate
12.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
28
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.59
Goals for per game
2.02
77.6%
Scoring rate
86.8%
55.2%
BTTS rate
56.6%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.88
85.7%
Scoring rate
83.3%
64.3%
BTTS rate
54.2%
58
History Matches
53
1.59
Goals Mean
2.02
1.17
Goals Std
1.54
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
86.8%
53.4%
Scored 2+ rate
60.4%
22.4%
Scored 3+ rate
28.3%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.03
Goals against per game
0.98
67.2%
Conceding rate
64.2%
1.14
Goals against per game
0.88
71.4%
Conceding rate
62.5%
58
History Matches
53
1.03
Conceded Mean
0.98
0.93
Conceded Std
0.90
29.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.3%
5.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.7%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
0.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
53
0.96
Result entropy
0.82
1.23
Goal Difference Std
1.74
3.62
Stability score
18.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
53
18
Lead Matches
24
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.89
11
Trailing Matches
10
72.7%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
45.5%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.98
Rest days
172.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.94
21
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.69
0.54
Portability PPG Range
2.00
70.08
Portability Score
42.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-99.73
PPG-0.45
GF-0.43
GA0.05
PPG-0.38
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate9.2%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate1.0%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches5
Result entropy0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.50
Stability score-14.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate22.7%
Trailing Win Rate15.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.47
Portability PPG Range-1.46
Portability Score27.91
Rest days-97.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Current Team ELO-99.73
Current Opponent ELO99.73
Current ELO Difference-199.5
Expected score-0.28
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Wahda FC

W
Khalidiya1–2Al Wahda FC28 Oct · away
Pick: Khalidiya 48% · missed
W
Al Fujairah SC0–1Al Wahda FC23 Oct · away
Pick: Al Wahda FC 45% · hit
W
Khorfakkan2–3Al Wahda FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Al Wahda FC 48% · hit
W
Nasaf1–2Al Wahda FC14 Oct · away
Pick: Nasaf 47% · missed
W
Al Wahda FC2–1Baniyas SC30 Aug · home
Pick: Al Wahda FC 55% · hit

Khalidiya

L
Khalidiya1–2Al Wahda FC28 Oct · home
Pick: Khalidiya 48% · missed
D
Khalidiya2–2Al Ittifaq Maqaba23 Oct · home
Pick: Khalidiya 73% · missed
W
Al Ahli1–2Khalidiya18 Oct · away
Pick: Khalidiya 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Wahda FC and Khalidiya meet in AFC Champions League Two on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Al Nahyan Stadium, Abu Dhabi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Al Wahda FC win 41.1%, draw 27.5%, Khalidiya win 31.4%. The pick is Al Wahda FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.3%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.