ScoreProb
Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Albion Rovers vs Renfrew

Albion Rovers Home · Elo 1,444
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Renfrew Away · Elo 1,451
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Albion Rovers win
Albion Rovers winPick
66.0%
Draw
14.0%
Renfrew win
19.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.9%
Under 2.525.1%

How much we know

Albion Rovers history47 matches
Renfrew history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Albion Rovers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,444 against 1,451. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Renfrew score more

    1.34 goals a game over 47 matches for Albion Rovers, against 1.50 over 6 for Renfrew.

  • Albion Rovers concede fewer

    Albion Rovers concede 1.83 a game, Renfrew 3.33.

  • Renfrew games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Albion Rovers matches, against 83% for Renfrew. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Albion Rovers
Renfrew
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1444.4
ELO
1450.9
47
ELO · Matches
6
1444.4
Current Team ELO
1450.9
1450.9
Current Opponent ELO
1444.4
-6.44
Current ELO Difference
6.44
0.49
Expected score
0.51
47
History Matches
6
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.38
46.31
Overperformance
41.26
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.38
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
3.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
6
1.40
PPG
0.17
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
3.33
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.96
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.33
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.41
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
6
1.17
PPG
0.17
34.0%
Win rate
0.0%
14.9%
Draw rate
16.7%
51.1%
Loss rate
83.3%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
61.7%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
83.3%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
2
1.36
PPG
0.50
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
16.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
44.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
25
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.50
66.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
48.9%
BTTS rate
83.3%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.00
64.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
36.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
83.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
83.3%
47
History Matches
6
1.34
Goals Mean
1.50
1.34
Goals Std
0.96
66.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
38.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.83
Goals against per game
3.33
76.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.44
Goals against per game
2.00
64.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
3.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
6
1.83
Conceded Mean
3.33
1.48
Conceded Std
1.11
53.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
36.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
66.7%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
6
0.90
Result entropy
0.41
2.01
Goal Difference Std
0.90
9.56
Stability score
58.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
6
7
Lead Matches
0
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.71
Lead Points Retention
—
18
Trailing Matches
4
22.2%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.89
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.33
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
28
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
15
Long Rest History Matches
1
0.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
0.83
PPG
0.17
16.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
83.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
83.3%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.90
6
Current Competition Matches
6
0.83
Current Competition PPG
0.17
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.83
4
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.36
Portability PPG Std
—
0.87
Portability PPG Range
—
57.98
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-6.44
PPG1.00
GF-0.16
GA-1.50
PPG0.67
PPG0.86
PPG0.60
PPG1.23
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches41
Clean-sheet rate23.4%
Failed-to-score rate17.4%
History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate36.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches41
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches41
Conceded Mean-1.50
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate23.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.47
Conceded 3+ rate-0.30
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches41
Result entropy0.49
Goal Difference Std1.11
Stability score-49.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.99
Eligible Matches40
Lead Matches7
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches40
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.44
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.17
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches26
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.43
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match0.60
Current Team ELO-6.44
Current Opponent ELO6.44
Current ELO Difference-12.87
Expected score-0.02
History Matches41
Residual Mean0.33
Overperformance5.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Albion Rovers

L
Auchinleck Talbot1–0Albion Rovers31 Oct · away
Pick: Auchinleck Talbot 66% · hit
D
Caledonian Braves1–1Albion Rovers27 Oct · away
Pick: Caledonian Braves 66% · missed
L
Albion Rovers1–2Troon FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Troon FC 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Renfrew

L
Renfrew4–5Troon FC28 Oct · home
Pick: Troon FC 60% · hit
W
Renfrew2–1Stirling Albion24 Oct · home
Pick: Stirling Albion 56% · missed
L
Renfrew1–5Clydebank29 Aug · home
Pick: Clydebank 79% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Albion Rovers and Renfrew meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Albion Rovers win 66.0%, draw 14.0%, Renfrew win 19.9%. The pick is Albion Rovers win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.9%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.