ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone A Italy Girone A - 13 2026

Alcione vs Lumezzane

Alcione Home · Elo 1,470
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lumezzane Away · Elo 1,500
Stadio Ferruccio, Seregno Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Alcione win
Alcione winPick
49.8%
Draw
26.1%
Lumezzane win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.3%
No53.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.538.6%
Under 2.561.4%

How much we know

Alcione history61 matches
Lumezzane history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Alcione are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lumezzane are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,470. On rating alone Lumezzane would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Lumezzane score more

    0.87 goals a game over 61 matches for Alcione, against 1.05 over 59 for Lumezzane.

  • Alcione concede fewer

    Alcione concede 1.00 a game, Lumezzane 1.19.

  • Lumezzane games more often go over 2.5 goals

    23% of Alcione matches, against 36% for Lumezzane. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alcione
Lumezzane@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1470.2
ELO
1499.8
61
ELO · Matches
59
1470.2
Current Team ELO
1499.8
1499.8
Current Opponent ELO
1470.2
-29.63
Current ELO Difference
29.63
0.46
Expected score
0.54
61
History Matches
59
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
47.91
Overperformance
50.19
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.40
0.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
59
1.18
PPG
1.15
29.5%
Win rate
23.7%
29.5%
Draw rate
44.1%
41.0%
Loss rate
32.2%
54.1%
Over 1.5 rate
67.8%
23.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.6%
9.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
29
1.52
PPG
1.07
41.4%
Win rate
20.7%
27.6%
Draw rate
44.8%
31.0%
Loss rate
34.5%
58.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
27.6%
Over 2.5 rate
31.0%
10.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.87
Goals for per game
1.05
57.4%
Scoring rate
71.2%
36.1%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.10
Goals for per game
0.90
65.5%
Scoring rate
62.1%
34.5%
BTTS rate
48.3%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
61
History Matches
59
0.87
Goals Mean
1.05
0.98
Goals Std
0.93
57.4%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
21.3%
Scored 2+ rate
23.7%
4.9%
Scored 3+ rate
8.5%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.19
68.9%
Conceding rate
71.2%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.28
58.6%
Conceding rate
72.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
59
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.06
Conceded Std
1.07
18.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.9%
6.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
42.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
42.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
59
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.35
1.16
Stability score
2.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
59
14
Lead Matches
15
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.78
17
Trailing Matches
19
17.6%
Non-loss rate
36.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.31
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
76.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
20
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.45
0.65
Portability PPG Range
0.90
60.70
Portability Score
52.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-29.63
PPG0.03
GF-0.18
GA-0.19
PPG3.00
PPG0.45
PPG0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Failed-to-score rate13.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate13.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.79
History Matches2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-1.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score8.13
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Current Team ELO-29.63
Current Opponent ELO29.63
Current ELO Difference-59.25
Expected score-0.09
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alcione

W
Giana Erminio1–3Alcione31 Oct · away
Pick: Giana Erminio 44% · missed
L
Alcione1–2Athletic Carpi24 Oct · home
Pick: Alcione 58% · missed
W
Alcione4–1Desenzano Calvina18 Oct · home
Pick: Alcione 46% · hit
D
Alcione2–2Trento4 Oct · home
Pick: Alcione 41% · missed
D
Dolomiti Bellunesi0–0Alcione30 Aug · away
Pick: Dolomiti Bellunesi 35% · missed

Lumezzane

D
Lumezzane1–1Arzignano Valchiampo1 Nov · home
Pick: Arzignano Valchiampo 42% · missed
L
Pergolettese2–1Lumezzane25 Oct · away
Pick: Pergolettese 38% · hit
L
Athletic Carpi3–1Lumezzane17 Oct · away
Pick: Athletic Carpi 37% · hit
D
Juventus U230–0Lumezzane13 Oct · away
Pick: Juventus U23 55% · missed
W
Lumezzane1–0Giana Erminio30 Aug · home
Pick: Giana Erminio 40% · missed

About this match

Alcione and Lumezzane meet in Serie C - Girone A on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Ferruccio, Seregno. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Alcione win 49.8%, draw 26.1%, Lumezzane win 24.1%. The pick is Alcione win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.6%. Both teams to score: 46.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.