ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 11 2026

Alcorcon vs Real Jaén

Alcorcon Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Jaén Away · Elo 1,582
Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Jaén win
Alcorcon win
34.4%
Draw
30.7%
Real Jaén winPick
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%

How much we know

Alcorcon history64 matches
Real Jaén history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Real Jaén are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Jaén are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,582 against 1,505. On rating alone Real Jaén would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Real Jaén score more

    1.20 goals a game over 64 matches for Alcorcon, against 1.34 over 62 for Real Jaén.

  • Defences are close

    Alcorcon concede 1.03 a game, Real Jaén 0.94.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Alcorcon matches, against 44% for Real Jaén. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alcorcon
Real Jaén@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.0
ELO
1582.0
64
ELO · Matches
62
1505.0
Current Team ELO
1582.0
1582.0
Current Opponent ELO
1505.0
-77.03
Current ELO Difference
77.03
0.39
Expected score
0.61
64
History Matches
62
0.00
Residual Mean
0.07
50.10
Overperformance
55.27
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
62
1.36
PPG
1.76
34.4%
Win rate
50.0%
32.8%
Draw rate
25.8%
32.8%
Loss rate
24.2%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.0%
45.3%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
15.6%
Over 3.5 rate
12.9%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
29
1.84
PPG
1.45
48.4%
Win rate
34.5%
38.7%
Draw rate
41.4%
12.9%
Loss rate
24.1%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
58.6%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
24.1%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
6.9%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
31
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.20
Goals for per game
1.34
67.2%
Scoring rate
77.4%
51.6%
BTTS rate
53.2%
1.52
Goals for per game
0.93
74.2%
Scoring rate
65.5%
48.4%
BTTS rate
48.3%
64
History Matches
62
1.20
Goals Mean
1.34
1.20
Goals Std
1.06
67.2%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
34.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.3%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.3%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.03
Goals against per game
0.94
70.3%
Conceding rate
67.7%
0.77
Goals against per game
0.86
58.1%
Conceding rate
69.0%
64
History Matches
62
1.03
Conceded Mean
0.94
0.85
Conceded Std
0.84
28.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.4%
4.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.5%
0.77
Venue Conceded Mean
0.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
62
1.00
Result entropy
0.95
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.38
0.02
Stability score
5.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
62
17
Lead Matches
15
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.87
18
Trailing Matches
9
33.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.94
Rest days
92.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
29
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.63
73.40
Portability Score
68.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-77.03
PPG-0.40
GF-0.14
GA0.10
PPG0.39
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate10.2%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.99
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate8.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches2
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-5.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score4.58
Rest days-11.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO-77.03
Current Opponent ELO77.03
Current ELO Difference-154.1
Expected score-0.22
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alcorcon

D
Atlético Madrid II1–1Alcorcon30 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Madrid II 36% · missed
D
Alcorcon3–3Ibiza25 Oct · home
Pick: Alcorcon 36% · missed
D
Alcorcon1–1Huesca16 Oct · home
Pick: Huesca 41% · missed
D
Águilas2–2Alcorcon30 Aug · away
Pick: Águilas 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Real Jaén

W
Real Jaén3–2Algeciras2 Nov · home
Pick: Real Jaén 51% · hit
D
Atlético Madrid II1–1Real Jaén25 Oct · away
Pick: Real Jaén 37% · missed
W
Real Jaén1–0Rayo Majadahonda18 Oct · home
Pick: Real Jaén 45% · hit
W
Europa Fc0–3Real Jaén30 Aug · away
Pick: Real Jaén 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Alcorcon and Real Jaén meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Alcorcon win 34.4%, draw 30.7%, Real Jaén win 34.9%. The pick is Real Jaén win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.