ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 11 2026

Antequera vs Rayo Majadahonda

Antequera Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rayo Majadahonda Away · Elo 1,618
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rayo Majadahonda win
Antequera win
32.7%
Draw
28.9%
Rayo Majadahonda winPick
38.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.1%
No49.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.4%
Under 2.552.6%

How much we know

Antequera history61 matches
Rayo Majadahonda history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Rayo Majadahonda are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rayo Majadahonda are rated 117 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,618 against 1,501. On rating alone Rayo Majadahonda would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.23 goals a game over 61 matches for Antequera, against 1.34 over 56 for Rayo Majadahonda.

  • Rayo Majadahonda concede fewer

    Antequera concede 1.44 a game, Rayo Majadahonda 0.84.

  • Antequera games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Antequera matches, against 36% for Rayo Majadahonda. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Antequera
Rayo Majadahonda@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.4
ELO
1618.0
61
ELO · Matches
56
1501.4
Current Team ELO
1618.0
1618.0
Current Opponent ELO
1501.4
-116.7
Current ELO Difference
116.7
0.34
Expected score
0.66
61
History Matches
56
0.00
Residual Mean
0.10
50.31
Overperformance
57.38
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
0.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
56
1.28
PPG
1.82
34.4%
Win rate
50.0%
24.6%
Draw rate
32.1%
41.0%
Loss rate
17.9%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
60.7%
44.3%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
31.1%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
29
1.39
PPG
2.10
38.7%
Win rate
62.1%
22.6%
Draw rate
24.1%
38.7%
Loss rate
13.8%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
62.1%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
31
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.23
Goals for per game
1.34
67.2%
Scoring rate
67.9%
49.2%
BTTS rate
41.1%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.55
67.7%
Scoring rate
75.9%
51.6%
BTTS rate
41.4%
61
History Matches
56
1.23
Goals Mean
1.34
1.16
Goals Std
1.30
67.2%
Scored 1+ rate
67.9%
34.4%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.44
Goals against per game
0.84
73.8%
Conceding rate
55.4%
1.58
Goals against per game
0.83
74.2%
Conceding rate
55.2%
61
History Matches
56
1.44
Conceded Mean
0.84
1.30
Conceded Std
0.96
39.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.4%
19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.6%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
0.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
56
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.54
1.91
Stability score
7.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
56
16
Lead Matches
19
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.89
21
Trailing Matches
9
9.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
90.90
Rest days
77.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.76
26
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.41
Portability PPG Range
1.06
70.68
Portability Score
53.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-116.7
PPG-0.54
GF-0.11
GA0.60
PPG-0.72
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.60
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate16.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches5
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score-5.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.24
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.64
Portability Score17.12
Rest days13.63
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Current Team ELO-116.7
Current Opponent ELO116.7
Current ELO Difference-233.3
Expected score-0.32
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Antequera

L
Antequera0–1Real Murcia1 Nov · home
Pick: Real Murcia 45% · hit
W
Antequera2–0Águilas29 Oct · home
Pick: Águilas 36% · missed
D
Huesca1–1Antequera24 Oct · away
Pick: Huesca 54% · missed
L
Real Madrid II3–2Antequera18 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid II 55% · hit
W
Antequera3–2Ibiza30 Aug · home
Pick: Ibiza 37% · missed

Rayo Majadahonda

L
Hércules2–0Rayo Majadahonda1 Nov · away
Pick: Hércules 39% · hit
W
Ciudad de Lucena0–1Rayo Majadahonda27 Oct · away
Pick: Rayo Majadahonda 35% · hit
W
Rayo Majadahonda2–1Sant Andreu24 Oct · home
Pick: Sant Andreu 36% · missed
L
Real Jaén1–0Rayo Majadahonda18 Oct · away
Pick: Real Jaén 45% · hit
L
Algeciras1–0Rayo Majadahonda4 Oct · away
Pick: Algeciras 36% · hit

About this match

Antequera and Rayo Majadahonda meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Antequera win 32.7%, draw 28.9%, Rayo Majadahonda win 38.3%. The pick is Rayo Majadahonda win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.4%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.