ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Spain Group 11 - 10 2026

Alcúdia vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Alcúdia Home · Elo 1,456
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win
Alcúdia win
29.1%
Draw
28.7%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas winPick
42.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%

How much we know

Alcúdia history46 matches
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ibiza Islas Pitiusas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ibiza Islas Pitiusas are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,490 against 1,456. On rating alone Ibiza Islas Pitiusas would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Alcúdia score more

    1.22 goals a game over 46 matches for Alcúdia, against 1.06 over 51 for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas.

  • Ibiza Islas Pitiusas concede fewer

    Alcúdia concede 1.74 a game, Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Alcúdia matches, against 43% for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alcúdia
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.4
ELO
1490.3
46
ELO · Matches
51
1456.4
Current Team ELO
1490.3
1490.3
Current Opponent ELO
1456.4
-33.85
Current ELO Difference
33.85
0.45
Expected score
0.55
46
History Matches
51
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
46.96
Overperformance
48.91
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.90
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
2.10
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
51
1.26
PPG
1.29
37.0%
Win rate
33.3%
15.2%
Draw rate
29.4%
47.8%
Loss rate
37.3%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
43.1%
32.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
27
1.63
PPG
0.85
45.8%
Win rate
14.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
40.7%
29.2%
Loss rate
44.4%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
24
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.22
Goals for per game
1.06
76.1%
Scoring rate
72.5%
47.8%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.74
87.5%
Scoring rate
55.6%
58.3%
BTTS rate
48.1%
46
History Matches
51
1.22
Goals Mean
1.06
1.12
Goals Std
0.87
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
30.4%
Scored 2+ rate
25.5%
6.5%
Scored 3+ rate
7.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.74
Goals against per game
1.20
69.6%
Conceding rate
72.5%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.22
70.8%
Conceding rate
77.8%
46
History Matches
51
1.74
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.58
Conceded Std
0.99
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.3%
32.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
51
0.92
Result entropy
1.00
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.31
8.33
Stability score
0.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
51
11
Lead Matches
15
63.6%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.69
14
Trailing Matches
16
21.4%
Non-loss rate
43.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.2
Rest days
90.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
20
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
23
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.49
80.58
Portability Score
67.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-33.85
PPG-0.03
GF0.16
GA0.54
PPG0.77
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate3.5%
Scored 2+ rate4.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.54
Conceded Std0.59
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Conceded 2+ rate14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate22.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.78
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.49
Stability score7.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.63
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score13.47
Rest days90.33
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO-33.85
Current Opponent ELO33.85
Current ELO Difference-67.70
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alcúdia

L
PE Sant Jordi3–0Alcúdia31 Oct · away
Pick: Alcúdia 37% · missed
W
Alcúdia2–0Llosetense24 Oct · home
Pick: Llosetense 45% · missed
L
Cardassar6–2Alcúdia4 Oct · away
Pick: Alcúdia 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

D
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas0–0Constància1 Nov · home
Pick: Constància 40% · missed
D
Santanyí0–0Ibiza Islas Pitiusas24 Oct · away
Pick: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 40% · missed
W
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas2–0Formentera4 Oct · home
Pick: Formentera 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Alcúdia and Ibiza Islas Pitiusas meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Alcúdia win 29.1%, draw 28.7%, Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win 42.2%. The pick is Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.