ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Spain Group 11 - 10 2026

Constància vs Manacor

Constància Home · Elo 1,577
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Manacor Away · Elo 1,604
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Constància win
Constància winPick
39.7%
Draw
28.5%
Manacor win
31.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%

How much we know

Constància history53 matches
Manacor history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Constància are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Manacor are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,577. On rating alone Manacor would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Manacor score more

    1.72 goals a game over 53 matches for Constància, against 1.96 over 52 for Manacor.

  • Constància concede fewer

    Constància concede 0.92 a game, Manacor 1.08.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Constància matches, against 56% for Manacor. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 7 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Constància
Manacor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1576.6
ELO
1603.9
53
ELO · Matches
52
1576.6
Current Team ELO
1603.9
1603.9
Current Opponent ELO
1576.6
-27.33
Current ELO Difference
27.33
0.46
Expected score
0.54
53
History Matches
52
0.07
Residual Mean
0.10
55.22
Overperformance
56.97
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.10
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
52
1.81
PPG
2.02
52.8%
Win rate
59.6%
22.6%
Draw rate
23.1%
24.5%
Loss rate
17.3%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
49.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.8%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
40.4%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
26
2.00
PPG
1.81
59.3%
Win rate
50.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
30.8%
18.5%
Loss rate
19.2%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
27
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.72
Goals for per game
1.96
84.9%
Scoring rate
90.4%
45.3%
BTTS rate
55.8%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.46
85.2%
Scoring rate
88.5%
37.0%
BTTS rate
57.7%
53
History Matches
52
1.72
Goals Mean
1.96
1.34
Goals Std
1.44
84.9%
Scored 1+ rate
90.4%
43.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
28.3%
Scored 3+ rate
30.8%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.92
Goals against per game
1.08
58.5%
Conceding rate
57.7%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.08
51.9%
Conceding rate
57.7%
53
History Matches
52
0.92
Conceded Mean
1.08
0.93
Conceded Std
1.24
28.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.8%
5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.5%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
15.1%
Failed-to-score rate
9.6%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
15.1%
Failed-to-score rate
9.6%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
52
0.93
Result entropy
0.87
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.96
7.33
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
51
20
Lead Matches
24
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.94
15
Trailing Matches
7
46.7%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
167.3
Rest days
153.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
22
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.55
Portability PPG Range
0.31
64.42
Portability Score
76.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-27.33
PPG-0.21
GF-0.24
GA-0.15
PPG0.19
PPG0.60
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate5.5%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.31
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches1
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-6.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate18.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-12.03
Rest days13.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO-27.33
Current Opponent ELO27.33
Current ELO Difference-54.66
Expected score-0.08
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Constància

D
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas0–0Constància1 Nov · away
Pick: Constància 40% · missed
D
Constància2–2PE Sant Jordi24 Oct · home
Pick: Constància 69% · missed
W
Llosetense0–3Constància18 Oct · away
Pick: Constància 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Manacor

D
Manacor1–1Santanyí31 Oct · home
Pick: Manacor 63% · missed
L
Manacor0–5Villarreal27 Oct · home
Pick: Villarreal 53% · hit
D
Arenal1–1Manacor21 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Constància and Manacor meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Constància win 39.7%, draw 28.5%, Manacor win 31.7%. The pick is Constància win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.