Alessandria vs Celle Varazze
Alessandria
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Celle Varazze
Match result probability Model pick: Celle Varazze win
Alessandria win
31.3%
Draw
29.6%
Celle Varazze winPick
39.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.9%
No48.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.8%
Under 2.552.2%
How much we know
Alessandria history0 matches
Celle Varazze history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Celle Varazze
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Celle Varazze are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,500 against 1,517. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alessandria
Celle Varazze
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1517.3
0
ELO · Matches
34
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1517.3
1517.3
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-17.33
Current ELO Difference
17.33
0.48
Expected score
0.52
0
History Matches
34
—
Residual Mean
0.03
—
Overperformance
51.66
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
3.00
—
Goals for per game
1.60
—
Goals against per game
0.00
—
Win rate
100.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.90
—
Goals for per game
1.10
—
Goals against per game
1.10
—
Win rate
60.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.81
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
34
—
PPG
1.38
—
Win rate
38.2%
—
Draw rate
23.5%
—
Loss rate
38.2%
—
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
—
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
—
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
17
—
PPG
1.18
—
Win rate
29.4%
—
Draw rate
29.4%
—
Loss rate
41.2%
—
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
—
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
—
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
0
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.24
—
Scoring rate
73.5%
—
BTTS rate
50.0%
—
Goals for per game
1.18
—
Scoring rate
76.5%
—
BTTS rate
58.8%
0
History Matches
34
—
Goals Mean
1.24
—
Goals Std
0.97
—
Scored 1+ rate
73.5%
—
Scored 2+ rate
38.2%
—
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.29
—
Conceding rate
73.5%
—
Goals against per game
1.53
—
Conceding rate
76.5%
0
History Matches
34
—
Conceded Mean
1.29
—
Conceded Std
1.23
—
Conceded 2+ rate
35.3%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
34
—
Result entropy
0.98
—
Goal Difference Std
1.61
—
Stability score
2.09
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
34
0
Lead Matches
7
—
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.81
0
Trailing Matches
15
—
Non-loss rate
40.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
25
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
0
Long Rest History Matches
7
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
1
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-17.33
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-34
History Matches-17
History Matches-34
History Matches-34
History Matches-34
Eligible Matches-34
Lead Matches-7
Trailing Matches-15
Halftime Coverage Matches-34
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Long Rest History Matches-7
Current Team ELO-17.33
Current Opponent ELO17.33
Current ELO Difference-34.66
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-34
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Alessandria
W
Borgosesia1–3Alessandria1 Nov · away
Pick: Borgosesia 50% · missed W
Alessandria2–0Biellese25 Oct · home
Pick: Biellese 40% · missed W
Lascaris1–2Alessandria18 Oct · away
Pick: Lascaris 50% · missed W
Derthona1–3Alessandria4 Oct · away
Pick: Derthona 66% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Celle Varazze
W
Celle Varazze2–1Valenzana1 Nov · home
Pick: Celle Varazze 38% · hit L
Imperia2–0Celle Varazze25 Oct · away
Pick: Imperia 50% · hit L
Celle Varazze0–4Chisola4 Oct · home
Pick: Chisola 42% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Alessandria and Celle Varazze meet in Serie D - Girone A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Alessandria. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Alessandria win 31.3%, draw 29.6%, Celle Varazze win 39.0%. The pick is Celle Varazze win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.8%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.