ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone A Italy Group A - 11 2026

Imperia vs Saluzzo

Imperia Home · Elo 1,458
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Saluzzo Away · Elo 1,492
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Imperia win
Imperia winPick
37.4%
Draw
32.0%
Saluzzo win
30.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%

How much we know

Imperia history47 matches
Saluzzo history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Imperia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Saluzzo are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,492 against 1,458. On rating alone Saluzzo would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Saluzzo score more

    1.09 goals a game over 47 matches for Imperia, against 1.34 over 47 for Saluzzo.

  • Saluzzo concede fewer

    Imperia concede 1.47 a game, Saluzzo 1.11.

  • Imperia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Imperia matches, against 38% for Saluzzo. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Imperia
Saluzzo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1458.1
ELO
1492.4
47
ELO · Matches
47
1458.1
Current Team ELO
1492.4
1492.4
Current Opponent ELO
1458.1
-34.25
Current ELO Difference
34.25
0.45
Expected score
0.55
47
History Matches
47
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
46.89
Overperformance
49.24
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.40
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.10
0.90
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
47
1.06
PPG
1.36
25.5%
Win rate
34.0%
29.8%
Draw rate
34.0%
44.7%
Loss rate
31.9%
72.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.3%
51.1%
Over 2.5 rate
38.3%
29.8%
Over 3.5 rate
25.5%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
1.17
PPG
1.13
26.1%
Win rate
25.0%
39.1%
Draw rate
37.5%
34.8%
Loss rate
37.5%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.09
Goals for per game
1.34
68.1%
Scoring rate
68.1%
48.9%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.21
69.6%
Scoring rate
58.3%
52.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
47
History Matches
47
1.09
Goals Mean
1.34
0.96
Goals Std
1.31
68.1%
Scored 1+ rate
68.1%
31.9%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
6.4%
Scored 3+ rate
19.1%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.47
Goals against per game
1.11
72.3%
Conceding rate
72.3%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.25
78.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
47
History Matches
47
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.24
Conceded Std
0.99
48.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.7%
17.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.4%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
47
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.72
2.67
Stability score
0.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
47
14
Lead Matches
12
35.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.52
Lead Points Retention
0.78
11
Trailing Matches
15
9.1%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
90.90
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
35
0.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
12
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.55
Portability PPG Range
0.35
64.51
Portability Score
74.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-34.25
PPG-0.30
GF-0.26
GA0.36
PPG0.05
PPG0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate10.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score2.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.61
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.31
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-9.56
Rest days-98.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Current Team ELO-34.25
Current Opponent ELO34.25
Current ELO Difference-68.51
Expected score-0.10
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Imperia

W
Imperia2–0Celle Varazze25 Oct · home
Pick: Imperia 50% · hit
L
Borgosesia4–2Imperia18 Oct · away
Pick: Imperia 37% · missed
D
Lascaris1–1Imperia4 Oct · away
Pick: Imperia 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Saluzzo

D
Saluzzo0–0Gozzano1 Nov · home
Pick: Gozzano 41% · missed
D
Sestri Levante0–0Saluzzo25 Oct · away
Pick: Sestri Levante 54% · missed
L
Saluzzo0–3Chisola18 Oct · home
Pick: Chisola 39% · hit
L
Valenzana3–2Saluzzo7 Oct · away
Pick: Saluzzo 45% · missed
L
Ligorna2–1Saluzzo4 Oct · away
Pick: Ligorna 56% · hit

About this match

Imperia and Saluzzo meet in Serie D - Girone A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Imperia win 37.4%, draw 32.0%, Saluzzo win 30.6%. The pick is Imperia win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.5%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.