ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone A Italy Group A - 11 2026

Gozzano vs Derthona

Gozzano Home · Elo 1,494
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Derthona Away · Elo 1,468
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gozzano win
Gozzano winPick
42.3%
Draw
28.9%
Derthona win
28.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.5%
Under 2.553.5%

How much we know

Gozzano history50 matches
Derthona history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gozzano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gozzano are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,494 against 1,468. On rating alone Gozzano would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.16 goals a game over 50 matches for Gozzano, against 1.06 over 49 for Derthona.

  • Defences are close

    Gozzano concede 1.18 a game, Derthona 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Gozzano matches, against 41% for Derthona. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gozzano
Derthona
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.3
ELO
1468.5
50
ELO · Matches
49
1494.3
Current Team ELO
1468.5
1468.5
Current Opponent ELO
1494.3
25.82
Current ELO Difference
-25.82
0.54
Expected score
0.46
50
History Matches
49
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.03
49.35
Overperformance
47.87
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
49
1.32
PPG
1.27
32.0%
Win rate
34.7%
36.0%
Draw rate
22.4%
32.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
38.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.8%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
1.46
PPG
1.67
37.5%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
29.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
29.2%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.16
Goals for per game
1.06
78.0%
Scoring rate
65.3%
58.0%
BTTS rate
46.9%
1.08
Goals for per game
1.21
62.5%
Scoring rate
70.8%
37.5%
BTTS rate
45.8%
50
History Matches
49
1.16
Goals Mean
1.06
0.90
Goals Std
1.04
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
65.3%
26.0%
Scored 2+ rate
26.5%
12.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.27
70.0%
Conceding rate
77.6%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.13
58.3%
Conceding rate
70.8%
50
History Matches
49
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.11
Conceded Std
0.99
30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.7%
12.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
49
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.36
Goal Difference Std
1.59
0.14
Stability score
2.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
49
17
Lead Matches
15
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.82
10
Trailing Matches
14
30.0%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
87.90
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
35
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
13
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.33
53.85
Portability Score
75.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO25.82
PPG0.05
GF0.10
GA-0.09
PPG-0.21
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate12.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-2.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.74
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate8.6%
Trailing Win Rate12.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.53
Portability Score-21.42
Rest days-94.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO25.82
Current Opponent ELO-25.82
Current ELO Difference51.63
Expected score0.07
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gozzano

D
Saluzzo0–0Gozzano1 Nov · away
Pick: Gozzano 41% · missed
L
Gozzano2–3Chisola25 Oct · home
Pick: Gozzano 46% · missed
L
Biellese4–1Gozzano4 Oct · away
Pick: Gozzano 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Derthona

W
Derthona4–3Lascaris1 Nov · home
Pick: Derthona 66% · hit
D
Bra0–0Derthona25 Oct · away
Pick: Bra 50% · missed
D
Derthona1–1Asti18 Oct · home
Pick: Asti 38% · missed
L
Derthona1–3Alessandria4 Oct · home
Pick: Derthona 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gozzano and Derthona meet in Serie D - Girone A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Gozzano win 42.3%, draw 28.9%, Derthona win 28.7%. The pick is Gozzano win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.5%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.