Alianza Lima vs Cienciano
Alianza Lima
Full time
1–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 01:00 UTC
Cienciano
What we said before kickoff Result: Alianza Lima win
Alianza Lima winPick Result
59.0%
Draw
23.3%
Cienciano win
17.7%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickAlianza Lima win · 59.0%
What happenedAlianza Lima win · we gave it 59.0%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 51.4%
What happenedUnder · 1 goal
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 52.7%
What happenedNo · 1–0
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Alianza Lima win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
59%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.7
on average A pick at 59% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
19'
SubstitutionCristian Souza off · Carlos Cabello on
42'
Yellow cardGerson Barreto
SubstitutionRenzo Garces off · Fernando Gaibor on
45' 45+2'
Yellow cardAdemar Robles
Yellow cardNicolás Díaz
49' SubstitutionAlan Martín Cantero off · Luis Ramos on
54' 60'
SubstitutionAdemar Robles off · Gonzalo Aguirre on
SubstitutionMarco Huaman off · Kevin Quevedo on
70' GoalErick Castillo
72' SubstitutionJairo Vélez off · Alessandro Burlamaqui on
75' 77'
SubstitutionGerson Barreto off · Ray Sandoval on
77'
SubstitutionGonzalo Aguirre off · Didier La Torre on
85'
Yellow cardRay Sandoval
Yellow cardLuis Ramos
89' 90+2'
Red cardH. Melgarejo
Lineups
Alianza Lima 4-4-2 · Cienciano 4-4-2
1Duarte 13Huamán 3Antoni 6Garcés 17Advíncula 20Vélez 2Díaz 5Pavez 11Cantero 99Girotti 8Castillo 1Falcón 16Martinich 3Becerra 4Amondarain 13Núñez 29Robles 5Arias 88Barreto 7Souza 21Garcés 11Bandiera
Substitutes · Alianza Lima · Coach P. Guede
- 18A. Burlamaqui
- 7F. Gaibor
- 32J. García
- 25G. Gentile
- 14D´Alessandro Montenegro
- 27K. Quevedo
- 9L. Ramos
- 29J. Archimbaud
- 12Á. de la Cruz
Substitutes · Cienciano · Coach Horacio Melgarejo
- 27A. Yovera
- 22C. Cabello
- 8G. Aguirre
- 26R. Aguilar
- 39H. Caparó
- 14S. Cavero
- 31Í. Espinoza
- 18D. La Torre
- 17R. Sandoval
Match stats
Alianza Lima left, Cienciano right
Both teams to score
Yes52.7%
No47.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%
How much we know
Alianza Lima history76 matches
Cienciano history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
- Kickoff4 Nov · 01:00 UTC
- Full time: 1–0One of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Alianza Lima are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Alianza Lima are rated 95 Elo points higher
Elo 1,615 against 1,520. On rating alone Alianza Lima would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.57 goals a game over 76 matches for Alianza Lima, against 1.43 over 69 for Cienciano.
-
Alianza Lima concede fewer
Alianza Lima concede 0.89 a game, Cienciano 1.25.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
47% of Alianza Lima matches, against 48% for Cienciano. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alianza Lima
Cienciano
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1614.6
ELO
1519.6
76
ELO · Matches
69
1614.6
Current Team ELO
1519.6
1519.6
Current Opponent ELO
1614.6
95.04
Current ELO Difference
-95.04
0.63
Expected score
0.37
76
History Matches
69
0.08
Residual Mean
0.01
56.13
Overperformance
50.59
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.96
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.74
Overall performance9 signals 90
76
Matches
69
1.89
PPG
1.38
53.9%
Win rate
36.2%
27.6%
Draw rate
29.0%
18.4%
Loss rate
34.8%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals 100
40
Matches
37
2.15
PPG
0.97
65.0%
Win rate
21.6%
20.0%
Draw rate
32.4%
15.0%
Loss rate
45.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
40.5%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
40
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.43
82.9%
Scoring rate
72.5%
52.6%
BTTS rate
53.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
82.5%
Scoring rate
62.2%
45.0%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.53
90.5%
Scoring rate
68.4%
52.4%
BTTS rate
57.9%
76
History Matches
69
1.57
Goals Mean
1.43
1.30
Goals Std
1.32
82.9%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
43.4%
Scored 2+ rate
43.5%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
15.9%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.89
Goals against per game
1.25
61.8%
Conceding rate
75.4%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.43
55.0%
Conceding rate
81.1%
0.62
Goals against per game
1.53
57.1%
Conceding rate
84.2%
76
History Matches
69
0.89
Conceded Mean
1.25
0.91
Conceded Std
1.00
19.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.7%
6.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.7%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
76
History Matches
69
0.91
Result entropy
1.00
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.75
8.98
Stability score
0.41
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
76
Eligible Matches
69
26
Lead Matches
17
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.78
13
Trailing Matches
18
46.2%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
72.19
Rest days
72.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
8
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.13
47
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
25
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.72
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals 170
21
Matches
19
2.29
PPG
1.32
66.7%
Win rate
36.8%
28.6%
Draw rate
21.1%
4.8%
Loss rate
42.1%
61.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
21
Current Competition Matches
19
2.29
Current Competition PPG
1.32
1.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.95
Portability PPG Range
1.00
42.35
Portability Score
57.18
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
76
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO95.04
PPG0.52
GF0.13
GA-0.35
PPG0.97
PPG1.18
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate13.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate26.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate10.4%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.09
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate13.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.60
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score8.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.52
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate14.0%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate12.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG0.97
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.14
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.95
Portability Score-14.83
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.88
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.56
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO95.04
Current Opponent ELO-95.04
Current ELO Difference190.1
Expected score0.27
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Alianza Lima
W
Alianza Lima3–1Atletico Grau18 Oct · home
Pick: Alianza Lima 65% · hit L
Alianza Lima0–1Deportivo Garcilaso30 Aug · home
Pick: Alianza Lima 59% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Cienciano
W
Cienciano1–0UTC Cajamarca18 Oct · home
Pick: Cienciano 56% · hit L
Cienciano1–2Cusco31 Aug · home
Pick: Cienciano 48% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Alianza Lima and Cienciano finished 1–0 in Primera División on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Alianza Lima win 59.0%, draw 23.3%, Cienciano win 17.7%. One of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.