ScoreProb
Primera División Peru Round 16 2026

FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico

FC Cajamarca Home · Elo 1,482
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alianza Atletico Away · Elo 1,532
Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Alianza Atletico win
FC Cajamarca win
35.0%
Draw
25.1%
Alianza Atletico winPick
39.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

FC Cajamarca history45 matches
Alianza Atletico history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 20:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Alianza Atletico are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Alianza Atletico are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,482. On rating alone Alianza Atletico would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • FC Cajamarca score more

    1.53 goals a game over 45 matches for FC Cajamarca, against 1.23 over 62 for Alianza Atletico.

  • Alianza Atletico concede fewer

    FC Cajamarca concede 1.47 a game, Alianza Atletico 0.98.

  • FC Cajamarca games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of FC Cajamarca matches, against 39% for Alianza Atletico. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.9
ELO
1532.1
45
ELO · Matches
62
1481.9
Current Team ELO
1532.1
1532.1
Current Opponent ELO
1481.9
-50.20
Current ELO Difference
50.20
0.43
Expected score
0.57
45
History Matches
62
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
49.24
Overperformance
52.78
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
62
1.44
PPG
1.55
40.0%
Win rate
43.5%
24.4%
Draw rate
24.2%
35.6%
Loss rate
32.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
57.8%
Over 2.5 rate
38.7%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
1.80
PPG
0.93
52.0%
Win rate
22.2%
24.0%
Draw rate
25.9%
24.0%
Loss rate
51.9%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
44.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.23
77.8%
Scoring rate
71.0%
62.2%
BTTS rate
43.5%
1.88
Goals for per game
0.81
92.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
68.0%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.27
76.2%
Scoring rate
77.3%
76.2%
BTTS rate
59.1%
45
History Matches
62
1.53
Goals Mean
1.23
1.17
Goals Std
1.08
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
71.0%
46.7%
Scored 2+ rate
33.9%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
0.98
77.8%
Conceding rate
61.3%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.33
76.0%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.90
Goals against per game
1.23
100.0%
Conceding rate
72.7%
45
History Matches
62
1.47
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.15
Conceded Std
1.04
46.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.2%
15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
62
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.54
1.83
Stability score
2.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
62
10
Lead Matches
17
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.88
18
Trailing Matches
14
27.8%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
27.8%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.15
Rest days
74.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
22
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
22
1.00
PPG
1.27
23.8%
Win rate
31.8%
28.6%
Draw rate
31.8%
47.6%
Loss rate
36.4%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
47.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
21
Current Competition Matches
22
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.27
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.05
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.70
0.90
Portability PPG Range
1.89
52.50
Portability Score
41.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-50.20
PPG-0.10
GF0.31
GA0.48
PPG-0.27
PPG0.87
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-17
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate6.8%
Scored 2+ rate12.8%
Scored 3+ rate9.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate22.5%
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches-17
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-0.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.42
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.28
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate13.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.27
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.38
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.98
Portability Score10.80
Rest days4.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Current Team ELO-50.20
Current Opponent ELO50.20
Current ELO Difference-100.4
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-17
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Cajamarca

L
Sporting Cristal5–0FC Cajamarca2 Nov · away
Pick: Sporting Cristal 60% · hit
L
Sport Boys4–2FC Cajamarca25 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Boys 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Alianza Atletico

L
Sport Huancayo4–1Alianza Atletico24 Oct · away
Pick: Alianza Atletico 39% · missed
L
Alianza Atletico1–4Universitario18 Oct · home
Pick: Universitario 39% · hit
W
UCV Moquegua1–4Alianza Atletico30 Aug · away
Pick: UCV Moquegua 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico meet in Primera División on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 20:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Cajamarca win 35.0%, draw 25.1%, Alianza Atletico win 39.8%. The pick is Alianza Atletico win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.