ScoreProb
Primera Division El Salvador Round 19 2026

Alianza vs Águila

Alianza Home · Elo 1,578
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Águila Away · Elo 1,571
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Alianza win
Alianza winPick
43.5%
Draw
26.7%
Águila win
29.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%

How much we know

Alianza history81 matches
Águila history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 01:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Alianza are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,578 against 1,571. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.43 goals a game over 81 matches for Alianza, against 1.48 over 84 for Águila.

  • Alianza concede fewer

    Alianza concede 0.94 a game, Águila 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Alianza matches, against 48% for Águila. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alianza
Águila
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1578.0
ELO
1571.0
81
ELO · Matches
84
1578.0
Current Team ELO
1571.0
1571.0
Current Opponent ELO
1578.0
6.91
Current ELO Difference
-6.91
0.51
Expected score
0.49
81
History Matches
84
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
53.03
Overperformance
53.09
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.40
0.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.90
0.90
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
81
Matches
84
1.78
PPG
1.70
53.1%
Win rate
50.0%
18.5%
Draw rate
20.2%
28.4%
Loss rate
29.8%
64.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
45.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
43
1.95
PPG
1.72
62.2%
Win rate
51.2%
8.1%
Draw rate
18.6%
29.7%
Loss rate
30.2%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.1%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
34.9%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.3%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
37
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.48
71.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
40.7%
BTTS rate
47.6%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.21
75.7%
Scoring rate
67.4%
40.5%
BTTS rate
34.9%
0.75
Goals for per game
1.00
25.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
25.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
81
History Matches
84
1.43
Goals Mean
1.48
1.25
Goals Std
1.21
71.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
43.2%
Scored 2+ rate
44.0%
21.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.4%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.94
Goals against per game
1.14
59.3%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.00
62.2%
Conceding rate
58.1%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.67
75.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
81
History Matches
84
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.14
0.95
Conceded Std
1.05
27.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.9%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
81
History Matches
84
0.92
Result entropy
0.94
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.65
8.43
Stability score
6.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
81
Eligible Matches
84
32
Lead Matches
34
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
79.4%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.85
16
Trailing Matches
19
12.5%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
81
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.06
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
16
2.09
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.88
54
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
15
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
6
1.00
PPG
0.50
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
4
Current Competition Matches
6
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.88
1.05
Portability PPG Range
2.50
51.63
Portability Score
36.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
81
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO6.91
PPG0.08
GF-0.04
GA-0.20
PPG0.50
PPG0.23
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score2.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate8.1%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.17
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-1.45
Portability Score15.40
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.22
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.47
Current Team ELO6.91
Current Opponent ELO-6.91
Current ELO Difference13.82
Expected score0.02
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alianza

L
Atletico Balboa1–0Alianza1 Nov · away
Pick: Atletico Balboa 34% · hit
D
Alianza0–0CD Marathon28 Oct · home
Pick: CD Marathon 36% · missed
L
CD Marathon2–1Alianza21 Oct · away
Pick: CD Marathon 47% · hit
D
Cacahuatique0–0Alianza17 Oct · away
Pick: Cacahuatique 34% · missed
D
Alianza2–2Firpo4 Oct · home
Pick: Firpo 53% · missed

Águila

W
Fuerte San Francisco3–4Águila1 Nov · away
Pick: Águila 45% · hit
W
Águila3–1FAS24 Oct · home
Pick: FAS 41% · missed
D
Atletico Balboa2–2Águila18 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Balboa 34% · missed
W
Águila4–1Fuerte San Francisco30 Aug · home
Pick: Águila 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Alianza and Águila meet in Primera Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 01:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Alianza win 43.5%, draw 26.7%, Águila win 29.8%. The pick is Alianza win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.